IPOH, Perak - Malaysia’s fourth-largest state Perak is set to play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the country’s general election on Saturday, as narrow margins and a mixed electorate have made it one of the most fiercely contested regions in the campaign.

Perak’s state assembly election, which is taking place simultaneously with parliamentary elections, could yet result in no clear winner.

With the three major coalitions – Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – duking it out here and across the nation, observers have predicted a strong chance that no single coalition will be able to win a simple majority of seats either in the Perak state assembly or in the federal Parliament.

“The election result for the Perak state assembly is expected to be a close one, with (none of) PH, PN or BN having the numbers to form the next government,” Bower Group Asia deputy managing director Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani told The Straits Times.

Perak has 24 parliamentary seats and 59 state assembly seats up for grabs, and only seven of the Parliament wards are considered safe seats for incumbents. This means Perak has 17 parliamentary seats that could go either way with a small swing in voting trends, and this would be crucial as the parties attempt to whip up enough numbers to form the federal government.

The top leaders of both opposition PH and Umno-led BN are contesting here, drawing much of the campaign attention to the constituencies they are running in. Two senior office-holders from PN are also contesting in Perak.

Much of the attention has been focused on the semi-urban Tambun ward near state capital Ipoh, where PH leader Anwar Ibrahim is contesting against PN deputy chairman Ahmad Faizal Azumu.

But the election battle in Perak will likely be won or lost in the semi-rural and Malay heartland constituencies, where margins are too close to call.

Datuk Seri Anwar’s PH has the most number of safe seats in Perak, thanks to its traditional support base in urban areas. However, his party has, in the past, struggled in the Malay heartland, where it needs to perform well in order to win the biggest share of seats from Malaysia’s fourth-largest state.

One of those seats is Bagan Datuk, where Umno chief Zahid Hamidi is contesting.

Zahid is a six-term incumbent, but what was once considered a safe seat for Umno appears less secure after PH fielded former deputy minister Shamsul Iskandar Md Akin in the constituency and played up his reputation as a giant slayer who defeated an Umno stalwart in Melaka twice before.

Datuk Seri Shamsul and Mr Anwar have been drawing thousands to their rallies in Bagan Datuk, an anomaly for the constituency.

But it remains to be seen if this will translate into votes.

Zahid’s defeat could arguably represent the biggest upset in Malaysia’s election history.

A fierce battle is also shaping up in the semi-rural and Malay majority constituencies between Umno and PN, led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin. PN appears to have made inroads into Umno’s vote bank, turning many safe Umno seats into close battles.

“BN risks losing its seats to PN, with PN’s message of a clean government resonating amongst the Malay voters, especially with allegations of corruption against BN leaders, including Zahid Hamidi,” Mr Asrul said, referring to 47 corruption charges that Zahid is still facing in Malaysian courts.

PH leaders are hoping that this battle will split the Malay vote share, tipping the scales in favour of PH in seats where the opposition party already has a secure non-Malay vote bank.

This three-way battle will likely also yield a hung state assembly in Perak, where a party needs to win at least 30 seats to form the state government.

A three-way fight here in 2018 did not yield a clear winner, while in the two-way races in 2008 and 2013, PH’s former moniker Pakatan Rakyat and BN won the state elections in the respective years with just a one-seat majority.

For all three coalitions, their fortunes in Perak will likely be tied to their performance nationally in Saturday’s election. PH component Democratic Action Party chairman Lim Guan Eng made that clear during a rally on Wednesday.

“We have to win Perak, if not, we cannot win Putrajaya (federal government). It is a pre-condition, we must win Perak,” Mr Lim said.

• Additional reporting by Lok Jian Wen