KUALA LUMPUR (THE STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Parti Islam Se Malaysia (PAS) has shown that it can bring out its supporters, be it in Terengganu or in Selangor. Its most recent Fastaqim gathering filled the entire stadium in Shah Alam.
Size matters in politics and the party was signalling to the Pakatan Harapan leadership in Selangor that it has the Malay numbers.
PAS leaders are determined to hold on to what they have in Selangor, but they should be focusing on Kelantan instead because if they lose the state, they will end up like Gerakan after Penang fell.
The opinion out there is that the PAS government has not looked this vulnerable in years and surveys have shown that the party may lose Kelantan in the general election. Is PAS rule, which has lasted 27 years, about to come to an end?
One would not suspect anything going by Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak's soft words, big smile and warm body language when he made a day trip to Kota Baru last weekend.
The Prime Minister went there as a "friend of PAS", assuring Kelantanese that political differences would not stand in the way of the Federal Government helping the state grow and prosper.
And he did put the money where his mouth is, launching a flood mitigation project that will cost RM572 million (S$192 million) along Sungai Kelantan, where some 100,000 people are affected by floods every year.
It is something that Kelantanese need after suffering the big flood of 2014.
Ties between PAS and Umno have never been this warm and they have organised joint rallies in the name of Islamic and humanitarian causes.
The sight of Najib and PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang holding hands and whispering into each other's ears led many to speculate about an electoral pact between their parties.
Some even claimed Umno would "make way" for PAS in Kelantan.
The fantasy was good while it lasted, but it is evident by now that Umno is as hungry as a wolf to take back Kelantan.
The then Pakatan Rakyat won 32 state and nine parliamentary seats in 2013, while Barisan won 12 state and five parliamentary seats.
This could be Umno's best chance since 2004 when Barisan Nasional came within two seats of toppling PAS.
A PAS-commissioned survey in Kelantan last year showed that Umno had 44 per cent support in the state, while PAS had 48 per cent.
Amanah had 5 per cent support and Parti Pribumi had only 2 per cent.
But the survey was done before Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad was made chairman and prime minister nominee for Pakatan Harapan.
It is anyone's guess whether that would have boosted Parti Pribumi's standing in Kelantan or caused it to deteriorate, given Dr Mahathir's pock-marked history with Kelantanese.
"Many people still like PAS, but they are not satisfied with the performance of their leaders. Our Mentri Besar is seen as a good person, but he is not effective," said a Muslim activist from Kota Baru.
Mentri Besar Datuk Ahmad Yakob knew from the start that he would be unable to fill the big shoes left behind by Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who was the pillar that held up PAS through one election after another.
Kelantan is the kind of state where politicians with grand houses and flashy cars become the subject of backtalk, and Ahmad's strong point is that he is a simple man who has not changed over the years.
He still goes around his kampung on a bicycle and was once seen cycling with his wife riding pillion.
He goes to the neighbourhood barber, often waiting in line among the village folk for his haircut.
He is the kind of politician whom local folk connect with, but he is not quite Mentri Besar material.
Nik Aziz was not perfect. He was also unable to do much in terms of development but he had something more powerful - he held the moral compass and Kelantanese trusted him.
Leaders like him come once in a blue moon and that is why the Kelantan government is floundering for want of a charismatic figure.
Amanah state chairman Datuk Wan Rahim Wan Abdullah insisted that PAS, Umno and Pakatan have equal chances to form the state government.
He claimed that based on his "personal observations", each of the three groups has 22 per cent support, with fence-sitters comprising the remaining 34 per cent.
He said PAS and Umno used to have 33 per cent hardcore support each, but PAS has lost a third of its support to Amanah while Umno lost 11 per cent of its support to Bersatu.
"I have been in Kelantan politics for 40 years. I can read sentiments on the ground," said Wan Rahim.
Pakatan brought Dr Mahathir on board because they thought he could swing the Malay vote, but his party has been a non-starter in Kelantan, which is 95 per cent Malay.
Moreover, he is disliked in Sabah, the Sarawaians are leery of him and he is in the bad books of at least four royal houses.
To compound matters, his party has no big political figure to lead in Kelantan. Its sole big name, Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman, is contesting a west coast seat.
One thing, though: all three contenders for power in Kelantan have a Mentri Besar candidate lined up.
PAS' Deputy Mentri Besar Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah is slated to move up if PAS retains the state.
Umno has pinpointed Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed, who is respected by both Umno and PAS supporters.
And Pakatan is pinning its hopes on Datuk Husam Musa, who is a vice-president of Amanah.
They are well-established names, but there can only be one winner as the ground rumbles and Kelantanese approach the political crossroads.
The writer is a regular commentator with The Star. The paper is a member of The Straits Times media partner Asia News Network, an alliance of 23 news media entities.
