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I confess, I did not think the Johor state polls would be this wild.
At the core of it – and indeed most elections – is the economy. Johor has been raking in record investments since this UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) government took office in 2022, but wages have not kept pace with inflation.
As Hadi Azmi, our correspondent who has been encamped in northern Johor, tells us: “It’s all about the economy and job opportunities. Palace intrigue and the likes of former Democratic Action Party assemblywoman Marina Ibrahim going rogue are all ‘Johor issues’.”
You read that right. In the north of the southernmost state, “Johor” refers to Johor Bahru and its surrounding metropolitan area.
It is around the state capital where voters take a broader view of politics. And so they’ve been fed more scripts than a Hollywood producer in the 12 days since candidates were nominated for the 56 seats on offer.
The July 11 ballot is being billed as several referenda all at once. One is whether jailed former prime minister Najib Razak should be pardoned from a six-year graft sentence, with another guilty verdict from the 1MDB scandal being appealed. Another is the extent of royal activism in state politics and administration.
A third is the reform agenda of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, based on whether it still has the backing of the non-Muslim and urban voters who have been its core supporters for two decades.
And yet, what our correspondents have found is that for JB locals, ensuring municipal services keep pace with the area’s rapid development is a key priority.
“The weightage of ground work is heavier than national issues here,” said correspondent Lu Wei Hoong, who has traversed the length of the state to report on whether PH can hold on to the 12 seats.
“We can see the more hardworking DAP incumbents and former assemblymen are looking far more solid than the new faces because of their track record.”
It is from this lens that some political statements have been framed. Harith Mustaffa, who has covered Johor for almost two years, has flagged a particular dynamic. Incumbent chief minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi vowed not to work with the Chinese-led DAP if BN forms the government again. This has been perceived as a threat to the community: either vote for us, or be sidelined.
Said Harith: “One stationery shop owner told me it’s such a waste that Johor had a good run the past four years in terms of economic growth and state-federal partnership. But the caretaker menteri besar’s statement ‘showed what may be on his mind the whole time’ – that the Chinese community will not be fairly treated if they fail to support BN.”
Thus, it remains extremely difficult to predict how the 2.7 million voters will have weighed the various campaign narratives, even if they view them all through economic and bread-and-butter lenses.
For example, opinion polls have 72 per cent of Johoreans saying they are happy with the direction of the state – as opposed to 49 per cent for the country. However, many might feel the state would be doing just fine even if BN loses its dominance, given how much influence the palace has on state policy.
We can tell you, though, what insiders and party strategists think will happen – even though they’ve been known to be wrong and wide of the mark before. BN is still expected to win, but a crucial barometer will be by how much.
If it wins fewer than the 40 wards it held prior to dissolution, this would be seen as a victory for PH, even if the seats go to PN. That is because it would fly in the face of UMNO’s belief that it has recovered from the battering it took at the 2022 general election.
But PH itself believes it will struggle to increase its tally. Indeed, a proxy for Chinese voter sentiment has emerged during the campaign: whether DAP or BN’s Malaysian Chinese Association will win more seats, with eight being the magic number.
But 24 hours is a long time in politics, and there is more than double that before the ballot boxes are sealed on Saturday. Whatever the result, ST’s Malaysia bureau will be on hand to analyse it from possibly more angles than is healthy or useful.
Let us know what are the burning questions you are hoping the Johor polls will answer after you’ve checked out some of our top stories from Malaysia in the past week.
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Malaysia’s political pacts face rebels in Johor campaining
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