'No' vote in Dutch referendum on EU's Ukraine pact forces government rethink

Officials count the votes of the Dutch referendum about the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine.
Officials count the votes of the Dutch referendum about the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. PHOTO: EPA

AMSTERDAM (REUTERS) - The Dutch government said on Wednesday (April 6) that it could not ignore the resounding "no" in a non-binding referendum on the European Union's association treaty with Ukraine, but it may take weeks to decide how to respond.

Although the results were preliminary, they exposed dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and policymaking in Brussels - signalling an anti-establishment mood in a founding EU member weeks before Britain votes on membership.

There could also be far-reaching consequences for the fragile Dutch coalition government, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency and which has lost popularity amid a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment.

Exit polls indicated roughly 64 per cent of Dutch voters voted "No" and 36 per cent said "Yes".

Although turnout was too close to call, early tallies indicated it was just ahead of a turnout minimum of 30 per cent required for the vote to be valid.

"It's clear that 'No' have won by an overwhelming margin, the question is only if turnout is sufficient," Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said in a televised reaction. "If the turnout is above 30 per cent with such a large margin of victory for the 'No' camp, then my sense is that ratification can't simply go ahead," he added.

That sentiment was shared by Mr Diederik Samsom, leader of the Labour Party, the junior partner the governing coalition. "We can't ratify the treaty in this fashion," he said.

A person familiar with internal EU discussions on how leaders in Brussels would respond said EU officials had been hoping for very low turnout that would disqualify or diminish the impact of a "No" vote.

The European Commission, the bloc's executive, will play for time, waiting for the Dutch government to suggest a way forward, the official said.

The political, trade and defence treaty is already provisionally in place, but has to be ratified by all 28 EU member countries for every part of it to have full legal force.

The Netherlands is the only country that has not done so.

SECOND DUTCH "NO" TO EU

Options include leaving the agreement in force provisionally, or drafting exemption clauses for the Netherlands. Nothing will happen in a hurry, not least to avoid giving any succour to Britain's "out" campaigners.

Mr Rutte said the government would consult with Parliament and European partners "step by step. That could take days or weeks".

Pollster Ipsos said the validity was still unclear with provisional turnout at 32 per cent - above the threshold - but within a 3 per cent margin of error.

The referendum, called by eurosceptic forces, was the first since a 2015 law made it possible to force through plebiscites by gathering 300,000 signatures on the Internet - a law which is already being criticised.

"It is an instrument for anti-establishment forces," said Mr Cad Mudde, an expert on Dutch politics and populism at the University of Georgia.

"It looks like the Dutch people said no to the European elite and no to the treaty with the Ukraine. (This is) the beginning of the end of the EU," Mr Geert Wilders, leader of the eurosceptic Freedom Party, said in a tweet. "I hope that later, both in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe, other countries will follow," he said earlier.

Dutch leaders campaigning for the treaty had said voting against it would also hand a symbolic victory to Russian President Vladimir Putin. They had feared a repeat of 2005 when the Dutch rejected the European Union constitution, also in a referendum.

But ignoring a clear "No" would be risky for Mr Rutte's already unpopular government - which has lost further ground over Europe's refugee debate - ahead of national elections scheduled for no later than March 2017.