Coronavirus: Olympics not likely even next year

TOKYO • Tokyo's postponed Olympics are unlikely to take place even next year as the coronavirus pandemic may not be fully contained around the world by then, a growing number of infectious disease experts warn.

The highly contagious virus, which has claimed more than 230,000 lives globally, will be at various stages of spread and infection in different countries by next summer, making it hard to pull off a large-scale international event, some health policy experts say.

Under such a scenario, guests and athletes from more than 200 countries and regions would require extensive testing and quarantines - a logistical process that may not be feasible.

"Japan may be able to contain the virus by next year's Games but other regions like the US, Africa or Brazil may not, creating an uneven playing field for athletes," said Norio Sugaya, a visiting professor at Keio University's School of Medicine in Tokyo and a member of a World Health Organisation (WHO) panel advising on pandemic influenza. "It's going to be tough to hold the Olympics."

His concern is echoed by Yoshito Niki, a visiting professor of infectious disease at Showa University, who warns that the world will need at least two years to contain the virus as infections return in the northern and southern hemispheres when they enter their winter seasons.

If the Games are to be pushed ahead regardless, spectators would have to be shut out and athletes would have to travel to Japan a month in advance for testing, he said. That raises the question of whether it will be even worth having the event at all, he said.

If extensive testing and quarantining of guests are needed, that would add to the massive logistical task of rescheduling the Games, which include rearranging contractors, securing venues and ensuring the multitude of stakeholder interests are aligned. At stake are billions of dollars in sponsorship money and broadcast rights.

A timely development of a vaccine would be one sliver of hope, but even that is optimistic as it may take three years for it to reach some of the poorer countries, Niki said.

While more than 100 experimental vaccines are in some stage of development, according to the WHO, it will take more than a year to ensure their effectiveness and safety, said Sugaya.

Japan's Olympics Minister Seiko Hashimoto said on Friday that the Games will not hinge on the development of a vaccine, Kyodo News reported.

But, in the event that the July 23-Aug 8 Olympics do not take place next year, they will likely be cancelled altogether, according to the organisers and the Japanese government.

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also said that if the virus is not contained by then, the Olympics "will be difficult to pull off in its complete form".

The Tokyo 2020 organising committee will continue to stay in close collaboration with the International Olympic Committee and the WHO, spokesman Masa Takaya said in an e-mailed reply to request for comments.

"With regard to the situation around the coronavirus, we do not speculate," he said.

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