Malaysia Edition: The calm before the Negeri Sembilan storm

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It was certainly a battering. But it wasn’t a knockout.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) has a near-instant chance of redemption after allowing Barisan Nasional (BN) to expand its dominance in Johor, as neighbouring Negeri Sembilan goes to the polls next on Aug 1.

In Johor, PH’s realistic target would have been to narrow the gap to UMNO-led BN’s tally of 40 in the 56-seat state legislature. Instead, PH ceded four seats as BN romped home with 48.

But victory for PH in Negeri Sembilan can mean only one thing: retaining the chief minister’s post for a third consecutive term. Anything less would count as failure.

This could, in fact, prove an even tougher mission than avoiding the mauling it took in Johor. BN, despite being an ally in Anwar’s federal administration, looks set to deepen cooperation with the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN).

In the southernmost state, PN skipped 23 contests, with its linchpin Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) fielding just 11 candidates in the name of Malay Muslim unity. BN contested all 56 seats, meaning there were overlaps in only 33 wards.

For Negeri Sembilan, BN has announced just 25 candidates, paving the way for PN to take on PH directly in the remaining 11. The message to their respective supporters appears to be: vote for either coalition against PH.

Should the strategy work – and UMNO reclaim the chief ministership it lost in 2018, with PAS declaring it has no interest in leading the state – it would become nearly irresistible for BN to replicate in the general election due by early 2028.

Our Johor correspondent Harith Mustaffa found during the hustings that most Malays approved of a BN-PAS pact, as “it amplifies Malay support for both parties whose core policies are protecting Malay interests and Islamic principles”.

“Even younger ones who have no idea what UMNO or PAS is always say they will vote in favour of Islam and Malay interests,” he said.

It would be a stark contrast for Anwar compared with how the 2022 general election ended for him. Malaysia’s first-ever hung Parliament saw him become prime minister of a so-called unity government, which encompassed practically every party save those in PN. Even PAS initially expressed openness to joining.

This is more reminiscent of Anwar’s efforts in 2020 and 2021, when political upheavals and defections triggered a scramble to gather a simple majority. Despite leading the largest coalition in Parliament – as he does now – he fell short as other MPs persistently avoided teaming up with him.

To give their opponents’ pause before reverting to an “anything but Anwar” stance, PH knows it must come out on top in Negeri Sembilan.

Stay with ST across the fortnight-long campaign, which begins on Saturday, for insights into this crucial battle. What is your call for Negeri Sembilan? Let us know after checking out some of our top stories from Malaysia in the past week.