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Will it be a third strike for Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH)?
Having suffered some of the worst-ever results in state polls for a ruling coalition at Sabah in November and Johor earlier this month, the Negeri Sembilan vote on Aug 1 will either be instant redemption or confirmation of a downward spiral.
It was one thing not to do well in states where his tripartite pact has never been a powerhouse. But it is another thing altogether if it fails to retain control of the central state, having ruled there for two consecutive terms.
Yet this seems to be the likely result based on early sentiment, even from top PH leaders.
One Cabinet minister told The Straits Times that the situation was “extremely dangerous” for PH, in the face of the combined strength of the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) as well as Parti Islam SeMalaysia’s opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition.
BN is technically part of Anwar’s federal administration, but it has clearly smelt blood since PH’s Sabah debacle – where the latter won only a single seat. Having dominated Malaysian politics for six decades until its shock loss in 2018, UMNO is simply not used to being part of the supporting cast.
Among political insiders, the sense is that while a BN-PN alliance may see PAS win more seats at a general election due by early 2028, the prime ministership will still go to UMNO, given the long-ruling party’s relatively more moderate image.
The Malay-Muslim vote forms the majority in 123, or more than half, of Parliament’s 222 seats. And the theory that the demographic is pretty much sewn up between PN and BN was proven in Johor.
If that trend continues in Negeri Sembilan and Melaka – which goes to the polls later this year – then an electoral pact at national polls will be nearly irresistible.
“So far, the cooperation has been to avoid contesting against each other in Negeri Sembilan’s 36 seats. But five days in, we are starting to see campaign events featuring leaders from both PN and BN,” said our correspondent Hazlin Hassan.
Hazlin noted that a large rally in the state capital of Seremban last night featured top leaders from both coalitions.
Coincidentally, Anwar himself joined the campaign the same day. It was no surprise, as this election is not just about who will govern one of Malaysia’s smaller states.
Instead, it is an indicator of whether PH is being hemmed back into its strongholds of the Klang Valley and Penang, having previously expanded strongly into neighbouring states like Negeri Sembilan and Melaka. Ceding this much ground will not bode well for Anwar’s chances of a second term leading the country.
Stay with The Straits Times as we head into the final stretch before the Aug 1 vote. What do you think will be the key issues and factors that will decide the battle?
Let us know after checking out some of our reporting from Negeri Sembilan and other stories from the rest of Malaysia this week.
After two strikes, Anwar needs a home run in Negeri Sembilan
Pakatan Harapan faces a crucial test in the state election after heavy losses in the last two state polls.
What you need to know about Negeri Sembilan polls
Four high-stakes seats to watch in Negeri Sembilan amid a royal tussle
Will the Negeri Sembilan state polls be Bersatu’s toughest test yet?
After breaking with PAS, Bersatu must prove it can remain politically relevant on its own.
Network School, the tech commune dividing Johor
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Women of Tampenau nursing Sabah’s rainforests back to recovery
They are raising native saplings to restore one of the state’s most degraded rainforests.
Why hit film Dear You struck a chord with Chinese Malaysians
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