Malaysia Edition: Another loss for Anwar’s PH in Negeri Sembilan?

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We are into the home stretch of the Negeri Sembilan election campaign. At this stage, most punters are predicting a third successive state polls loss for Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH).

But unlike Sabah and Johor, where PH was never expected to form the government, Negeri Sembilan will sting the most, as PH had governed it for two consecutive terms.

The arithmetic for those forecasting defeat for Anwar and his allies is simple – Malays are the majority in 23 of the 36 seats. The combined support between the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional (BN) and Parti Islam SeMalaysia’s (PAS) Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected to deliver at least a simple majority by winning 19 seats for the so-called Malay unity pact.

But why is the Malay-Muslim majority so reluctant to vote for PH here? No one seems to be saying that two-term chief minister Aminuddin Harun has performed badly and left the state in the gutter.

Instead, our correspondents have found that more emotive issues are at play. In urban areas, the idea of Malay political unity appeals to many who believe they are struggling against an economic system with entrenched interests – a subtle reference to powerful tycoons, who largely hail from the ethnic Chinese minority.

“Life isn’t easy even in the capital Seremban. Wages are not as high as in the Klang Valley, so many locals commute several hours daily to the Klang Valley for better-paying jobs,” said correspondent Hazlin Hassan, who has been on the ground since Nomination Day on July 18.

“Cost of living is lower in Negeri Sembilan, but there isn’t the same economic development yet that one might see in Johor or Penang to give them optimism for the future.”

Meanwhile, fellow correspondent Muzliza Mustafa found that the palace crisis, which triggered the snap polls in the first place, resonates among conservative rural Malays. The community treasures the unique customary laws that set Negeri Sembilan apart from other states with hereditary rulers.

The crisis was sparked when one of four territorial chieftains, known as Undang, was dismissed in April. They then claimed that the state’s monarch was no longer fit to rule. In Negeri Sembilan’s royal system, the four Undang have the power to elect a Yang di-Pertuan Besar from the royal family, and to call for an inquiry to dismiss him.

When Aminuddin publicly said the state administration continued to recognise incumbent Muhriz Munawir as the rightful ruler, UMNO seized on the opportunity to withdraw support for the PH-led state government, citing the chief minister’s interference in royal affairs.

One villager told Muzliza that he is upset by a remark from Aminuddin’s aide. The latter had jokingly described Anthony Loke, the secretary-general of the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party from PH, as “the fifth Undang”, due to Loke’s broad political influence in his home state.

“The villager told me this: We uphold the customs. There are only four Undang, not five. By saying there’s a fifth, it shows DAP has really been in control. This is not a laughing matter,” Muzliza recalled.

The unfortunate remark resonated with those who fear DAP’s rise as a – so far unfounded – threat to Malay political dominance.

But 48 hours is a long time in politics. Tomorrow, all contestants will make a final push before up to 900,000 voters decide on Saturday who will govern the state for the next five years.

The Straits Times will be keeping a close eye to keep you updated on the key factors behind the results, as well as what they portend for Malaysia’s political landscape.

Check out some of our latest reports from the bureau below. Let us know if there are particular issues you are curious about for this vote, and we will try our best to zero in on them.