Political tsunami: Reform UK’s local polls win a major threat to Britain’s two main parties

LONDON – Mr Nigel Farage is hardly a novelty in British politics. The 61-year-old hard-right activist has taken part in Britain’s elections since the 1990s and was one of the key movers behind a 2016 referendum that resulted in the country’s departure from the European Union.

But Mr Farage has now morphed from a mere fringe actor into an existential threat to the political establishment after his Reform UK party topped the polls in Britain’s

local elections on May 1.

With the general election due in four years, Labour and the Conservatives – which have dominated British politics for over a century – still have plenty of time to fight back.

Still, there is no question that Mr Farage unleashed a political tsunami that could sweep away the famously staid and stable British political system.

Britain could join other key European countries like France, Germany or Italy, where hard-right, populist and anti-immigrant parties are upending old, entrenched political elites.

With all the votes in the May 1 local polls now counted, Mr Farage’s Reform won 30 per cent of the ballots, up from just 2 per cent obtained in partial local elections held in 2024.

Out of the 24 English county councils that were up for election on May 1, Reform gained overall control of 10 and is the largest party in a further four, where no party won outright.

Overall, Reform captured 677 seats on local councils throughout England, 47 per cent of all the local councillor seats available for re-election.

Most of Reform’s gains came at the expense of the centre-right Conservatives, who were historically dominant in the rural areas.

“The Conservative Party is done,” boasted Mr Farage soon after the poll results were known.

But Reform also humiliated the centre-left government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who came to power only in July 2024.

In parallel to the local polls, there was also a parliamentary by-election in a seat left vacant by a Labour MP who was convicted of a criminal offence and disqualified from remaining in Parliament.

Near the north-western city of Liverpool, Runcorn and Helsby used to be one of Labour’s safest parliamentary seats. Yet on May 1, it was captured by Reform.

Admittedly, Reform won the constituency by a majority of only six ballots out of 32,600 cast. Nonetheless, the outcome now counts as one of Britain’s most spectacular electoral reversals.

Labour suffered further humiliation in places such as Doncaster, another historic stronghold of the party in England’s north-east, where Reform gained overall control of the local authority.

Reform, Mr Farage declared during a victory lap on May 2, “had the Labour Party for lunch”, and its triumphs mark the “end of two-party politics”.

Political life’s everyday wear and tear explains some of Reform’s success.

Although now out of office, the Conservatives are still blamed for their record in government, so they expected to be mauled at the local elections.

And Labour lost its popularity months after coming to power because it had to raise taxes and reduce social benefit payments.

Yet Reform’s success cannot be ascribed to just a protest vote against the established parties.

Once dismissed as just a collection of obsessive individuals with racist opinions on immigrants and distrust of other nations of Europe, Reform has now grown into a disciplined movement which claims 225,000 paid-up members, more than either the Conservatives or Labour.

Mr Farage has also kept his distance from US President Donald Trump.

Notwithstanding his previous close links to the US leader, Mr Farage refused a donation offer from Mr Elon Musk, the billionaire American businessman.

That was a shrewd decision, for it shielded Reform and Mr Farage from association with Mr Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Britain.

So, Reform avoided the anti-Trump backlash that hurt right-wing politicians in recent elections in places such as Australia and Canada.

But the most crucial reason for Reform’s electoral achievement is the party’s ability to capitalise on growing anger about the British government’s failure to deal with rising numbers of immigrants and asylum seekers, many of whom are dispersed in various English rural areas and housed in rented accommodation supported by the taxpayer.

Reform’s promise to implement a “zero migration” policy attracts many Conservative voters.

Mr Farage – a former banker and previously a disciple of free markets – is now presenting himself as a defender of Britain’s working class.

He promises pensioners greater social benefits and vows to exempt low-income earners from income tax, policies that play well with Labour’s electorate.

Mr Farage’s road to becoming prime minister remains long and arduous.

Mr Starmer enjoys a substantial parliamentary majority, and the general election does not have to take place before 2029.

The electoral system is also geared towards a contest between two large parties. Reform will struggle to replace either of them; at best, it will likely split the Conservative vote and hand Labour another mandate to govern Britain into the 2030s.

Still, Mr Farage’s move to the centre stage of national politics will have an immediate impact.

It will increase pressure on the opposition Conservatives to move further to the right, especially on matters such as immigration. So, the debate about border controls, already highly charged, is likely to get much more contentious.

Mr Farage’s success also reduces Mr Starmer’s ability to improve Britain’s relations with the European Union.

Mr Starmer initially hoped to use a May 19 summit with the EU as an opportunity to strike new agreements on freer trade and schemes allowing European youth to come to Britain for work and study for a short period.

Now, however, such plans look politically risky.

Throughout his life, Mr Farage has managed to change British politics without ever holding national power.

And this tradition seems set to continue.