Where do we flee? Japan’s outlying islands brace themselves for war in Taiwan Strait

OKINAWA – Japan’s south-western islands create an idyllic palette of emerald waters with white sandy beaches. Lushly tropical, they boast a climate suitable for growing mango, pineapple and even durian.

Indeed, life is simple and largely peaceful across the Nansei Shoto, an island chain that stretches 1,200km between the tip of Kyushu on the Japanese mainland and Taiwan. But things are changing quickly in the face of what Japan terms the “Taiwan contingency”.

The sleepy island of Yonaguni – where critically endangered Yonaguni horses roam and graze freely – is just 111km from Taiwan, as Japan’s westernmost point. The mountain ranges of its close neighbour can be seen on a clear day and, on occasion, even the artillery fire of Taiwan’s military training can be heard.

“Rather than a remote island of Okinawa, Yonaguni could well be a remote island of Taiwan,” Yonaguni Mayor Kenichi Itokazu, 70, tells The Straits Times. The Okinawan prefectural capital of Naha is more than 500km away; Tokyo and Beijing are both about 1,900km away.

If China invaded Taiwan, Japan’s south-western islands would be on the front lines of war. To forestall such an eventuality and defend its territory, the Japanese government has been fortifying the islands closest to the potential theatre of conflict with surveillance radar stations and missile units.

But this has divided local residents. On the ground, recent discussions about building bomb shelters and devising escape routes have made the threat feel more real, if not imminent.

“Never has there been so much attention here. Politicians never come to discuss economic issues, it’s always about defence,” says Mr Nobufumi Otake, 54, the third-generation owner of Donan, an awamori (Okinawan liquor) brewery on Yonaguni.

“Suddenly, there is all this talk about underground shelters, about fleeing, and this makes this crisis feel more real. But if we leave, can we come back? Or will Yonaguni be wiped out?” asks Mr Otake, wondering if he will be able to hand down the business to his 14-year-old son.

The plan to escape

More than 1.4 million people live on the islands of Okinawa prefecture. Japan is planning how they might flee in a conflict.

First, the residents of Yonaguni and Taketomi would travel to Ishigaki by air or ferry and Tarama residents would travel to Miyako island.

Next, residents and previously evacuated people would be transferred to Kyushu. An estimated 8,700 people can travel by air and 1,500 people by ship from Ishigaki each day. Miyako airports can move up to 9,900 residents a day, while its port can move 1,500.

Residents of the Okinawa main island are expected to hide in their homes or underground bunkers until the coast is clear for their evacuation.

There have been clear signs of militarisation since 2016, when Japan switched on a surveillance radar station on Yonaguni.

Since then, golf courses on the islands of Ishigaki and Miyako have been taken over, while land from a country club on Amami-Oshima was partially acquired, to build new Self-Defence Forces (SDF) bases.