American Evolution 2024
What drives America’s young voters?

WASHINGTON – To understand what moves America’s young voters, one must look at the country through their eyes. And what they’re seeing is a hazy mirage where their parents once saw the American dream.

Higher education feels too expensive. That dream job looks increasingly out of reach in a tough economy. And home ownership, in the high-interest-rate regime, has to be put off for longer.

So, it will be with a sense of disillusionment that the youth cast their ballot in the 2024 US presidential election, hoping for a leader who will bring about meaningful change.

The lead-up to the Nov 5 election has been particularly eventful.

Many young Americans will be casting the first vote of their lives with the aftertaste of the disputed 2020 election still lingering.

The disruption caused by waves of pro-Palestinian protests sweeping through US campuses and cities for the best part of a year will also still be fresh in their minds.

The choice before them is stark.

Republican Donald Trump, 78 – the charismatic, brash, anti-establishment billionaire, a businessman and convicted felon.

Or Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris, 60 – the self-declared “change” candidate who is, however, generally seen as likely to continue US President Joe Biden’s policies.

To the young, there is an attraction to what appears to be Trump’s bumbling authenticity and his tendency to stay away from scripted talking points to embrace political incorrectness. Even his willingness to stand on stage and look silly appeals to some young people.

But if opinion polls are accurate, it is Ms Harris who charms them more.

The daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica, she is curiously silent about her chance to make history as the nation’s first female president.

The Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics says she has a 23-point lead over Trump among under-30s who are registered to vote. The Yale Youth Poll shows her with a 21-point lead.

Youth support for Harris surges above Trump

Many of these 18- to 29-year-olds grew up in the aftermath of the Sept 11, 2001, terror attacks that altered the world. They bear scars from the Great Recession of 2008, even as they learn to cope with the fragility of the gig economy.

They accept incessant global connectivity and field fundamental doubts about globalisation. They have memories of America’s first black president taking the oath, and live in the time of the greatest partisan divide in generations.

Speaking to five young voters of white, Hispanic, black, Jewish and Asian American ethnicity, The Straits Times found a striking clarity in their views, the hard edge of reality not diminishing their dreams and ambitions.

It’s no great exaggeration to say that the future of the American republic is in this generation’s hands.

Voters under the age of 35 account for around 29 per cent of the national electorate, according to the US Census. They include eight million newly eligible voters (aged 18 to 19 in 2024), for whom this will be their first presidential election.

On the other hand, young people have for decades been seen as apathetic and the group least likely to vote.

Will that fickleness change in 2024?

Indications are that it may. Young voters seem more fired up than in the past, especially after President Biden stepped aside to make way for Ms Harris. That switch curbed the drift of young men to Trump, dramatically altering the race.

A larger proportion of young Democrats (74 per cent) say they will definitely vote in the coming election than Republicans (60 per cent).

Youth support for Democratic candidate has surged since Biden bowed out of the race

Nearly all Americans have felt the pain of high inflation during the Biden presidency. While rising costs consistently figure as the top issue for most voters, young voters are hit hard, having to postpone financial milestones like owning a home.

New national polls show that the significant edge Trump held over Mr Biden on the economy, across all age groups, has dwindled in a match-up with Ms Harris. Trump held a slim one-point lead in the Harvard poll of young voters.

Ms Harris’ campaign themes seem to be geared towards these voters.

She makes frequent references to her own middle-class upbringing and has outlined plans to provide grants for first-time home buyers. She has also promised to construct three million new homes, give tax cuts to new families and ban price gouging at grocery stores.

Mr Tyler Toledo, a 21-year-old fourth-year student at Syracuse University, notes: “You can see an understanding (of the economy) from Harris that you won’t see from Trump.”

He criticised Trump’s proposal for new tariffs of up to 20 per cent on most foreign goods and a 60 per cent tariff on all goods from China.

“That’s just a lack of professional understanding on how this economy works, which is going to hurt people,” said Mr Toledo, who has a mixed Hispanic and white heritage and is the president of the university’s College Democrats association.

But Mr Mario Nicoletto, a 23-year-old business development representative who is campaigns chairman at the New York Young Republican Club, batted away the criticism.

“Trump is completely justified in imposing tariffs on Chinese imports,” he said.

“This will not hurt the economy. Tariffs on foreign imports, particularly from China and other large players like Indonesia or Mexico, will bring manufacturing jobs back to states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio,” added Mr Nicoletto, a white American.

He pointed to the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act enacted under Trump as the better alternative for the middle class.

The legislation overhauled the US tax code and slashed corporate and individual income tax rates. Trump now wants to make these tax cuts, which expire in 2025, permanent.

“The 2017 Jobs Act will save American taxpayers US$1.5 trillion (S$1.98 trillion) over the next decade,” Mr Nicoletto said, adding that the “overwhelming majority” of those who benefited from it were middle-class people.

“Donald Trump cut taxes for the middle class. He’s going to do it again. He will not tax tips and social security. Overall, he will make our cost of living far more affordable.

“Under Kamala Harris, we’re going to see a further decrease in wages and an increase in home prices, gas prices and grocery prices. That’s just not going to be good for anybody except the Hollywood and Wall Street elite and the establishment class in Washington, DC.”

America’s position on the world stage is also top of mind for young voters.

The Oct 7, 2023, attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel and the bloody Gaza war that followed have become defining issues.

Where young people stand on issues

For Mr Ryan Weissman, a 19-year-old Jewish American from California, these issues matter enough to switch sides. A registered Democrat, he plans to vote for Trump.

“I’m a first-time voter, and I’m excited to have a hand in such a controversial election,” he said, adding in the same breath: “I’m not excited that my first vote comes with so much weight because that just means that there is so much at stake.”

The Oct 7 attack had made it a one-issue election for him, he said.

Trump is an “outspoken supporter” of Israel, while Ms Harris has been “selective” in how she speaks about Israel and appears neutral towards pro-Palestinian protesters who threatened the safety of Jews, said Mr Weissman.

“She has refrained from condemning pro-Palestine protesters who have been involved in flagrant anti-Semitism,” said Mr Weissman, a New York University second-year student who is studying to be a doctor.

Ms Kayla Stadeker, 23, a graduate student at Columbia University who intends to vote for Ms Harris, observed that the Vice-President does not have a clear stance on engagement with Israel. Or on how she would deter civilian casualties in Palestine.

“Voters don’t know what she stands for. Is it going to be similar to the Biden presidency? Are we going to see a ceasefire? What does America’s relationship with Israel look like? What do Palestinian rights look like?” she asked, adding that the Harris campaign needed to state its positions better.

For Mr Nicoletto, whose family members served in the Afghanistan war and suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the foreign policy of the next president is not an abstraction.

There were no new wars under Trump’s first term, he said, adding: “I think it would make a lot more sense if we had an America First foreign policy so we see fewer American soldiers suffering from PTSD, dying in combat or getting injured,” he said.

“Seeing my extended family go through that was why I needed to vote for Trump the first time in 2020.”

There was strong support for progressive policies among young Americans in the Harvard poll, with nearly three quarters strongly opposing a ban on abortion.

On immigration, there is a debate about what can be counted as America’s humanitarian obligations and how security can be reinforced while creating lawful pathways for immigrants.

American women lost the constitutional right to abortion when a Trump-enabled Supreme Court conservative majority in 2022 overturned the Roe v Wade verdict.

Now it ranks as the most important issue for young women, surpassing other concerns like inflation, climate change, crime and the economy.

For Ms Ritika Shroff, a 19-year-old first-time voter from Iowa, it’s the biggest reason why she is voting and campaigning for Ms Harris in the election.

“I believe it to be a human right that I think every woman should have,” said the second-year student at American University in Washington, DC.

“It’s very clear in this election which party wants to support human rights and which party wants to bring back repression and create a country where a minority candidate like Kamala Harris can never succeed.”

Ms Stadeker, who believes that people should have the right to make the choice on their reproductive rights, echoed this thought.

She also said she would like to see the next administration strengthen processes for asylum seekers and refugees at the southern border, an area that she considers in need of urgent reform.

Living in New York City, she said, she had seen how immigration policies had complicated the lives of recent migrants, with many in need of permanent shelter and the ability to work.

“I know that Biden received some criticism for his decision to close down the southern border temporarily during his presidency. I would like to see a Harris presidency expedite asylee applications and improve resources for refugees and asylees,” she said.

Mr Nicoletto, a fellow New Yorker, believes that Trump can solve the illegal immigration problem.

“All of our immigrants in my area of Long Island are great people, and they’re all legal. But in New York City, for example, I see those that don’t speak our language. In some cases they’re violent, and it upsets me,” he said.

“A lot of people say, you don’t like that they’re Haitians, or Puerto Rican, or Filipino, whatever. I truly do not care where these people are coming from. If you came from England or Norway, I would still say, if you came here illegally, time to go.”

Conservative estimates put the number of illegal immigrants at 11 million in 2022. Hundreds of thousands have continued to pour in since then, their numbers hitting a record in December 2023 before dipping.

“Trump’s going to initiate the largest mass deportation operation ever, and I support that wholeheartedly. I think that’s the best idea in this election,” said Mr Nicoletto.

“We’re going to finish our southern border wall and increase funding for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Simple as that. Should Harris be elected, we’re going to see less funding for ICE, no border wall and more illegal immigrants coming in.”

Ms Stadeker, who is black, recalls the 2020 election as a turbulent time, with the Covid-19 lockdowns and protests against police brutality after the death of Mr George Floyd, a black man, at the hands of the police.

An alumna of Hofstra University, New York, she takes pride in belonging to the same Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority network as Ms Harris. The Vice-President was a member of the sorority’s chapter at Howard University, a historically black college in Washington, DC.

Ms Stadeker also said she sensed an undertone of racism in the manner in which Ms Harris’ racial identity had been discussed in the lead-up to the election.

During an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago, Trump alleged that Ms Harris had embraced a black identity over her Indian one to appeal to black voters.

“I found it to be racist because he was trying to question his opponent’s racial identity and questioning if she was South Asian or black, when the truth is that you can be both,” she said.

“But beyond her identity, I take pride in voting for Harris because of her capabilities. Her experience in public service as a prosecutor and a senator is more reassuring than Trump, who has only held public office as president.”

Their chosen candidate often felt like an inspired choice to the young voters.

“It allows me to see myself in her, and it allows me to be so optimistic for the future. And it speaks volumes about the progress the US has made,” said Ms Shroff, an Indian American, referring to Ms Harris.

A stark contrast emerged when discussing the Vice-President’s rival.

Mr Weissman said he had trouble rationalising much of Trump’s behaviour.

“There are many instances when he contradicts himself. He’s notorious for telling lies. His racist talk is disgusting to me.

“It makes voting for Trump very difficult,” he said, adding that he saw himself voting for Democrats in later elections.

Mr Nicoletto said Trump’s flaws were not necessarily limitations.

“I don’t think many young people necessarily care about the indictments and the impeachments. They’ve only given him bumps in the polls,” he said.

For Mr Toledo, the Democrat, the character of the president was “incredibly important” on the world stage.

“Whether it was the United Nations laughing at him – which is a real video clip – or foreign nationals disrespecting him and not seeing him as legitimate...

“You can see that in books on his administration, news reports, and even leading up to his election. Foreign leaders are afraid of his getting back in office,” said Mr Toledo.

Ms Shroff said that as much as Ms Harris was inspirational, she would not have the answer to every question.

“As we become more divided as a country, we’re not getting to that point where there’s going to be a candidate who fits every Republican’s ideals, every Democrat’s ideals, every independent’s ideals,” she said.

Ms Stadeker noted that politicians set the tone and climate of how people discuss issues, and has already sensed less openness to engage with differing viewpoints among her peers.

“I have tried to go into spaces where people do not agree with me, but I do not think that is the case for the average American my age,” she said.

Looking past the 2024 election, she said she hoped both parties would find ways to find bipartisan solutions to the country’s most pressing problems. Disagreements are fine, “but we need to do so with more respect for each other”.

Follow our coverage of the US election at str.sg/us-elections-2024