US presidential election scenarios: What could happen after polls close

Mr Donald Trump has said, more than once, that the 2020 election could end up with a decision by the Supreme Court. PHOTO: AFP

WASHINGTON - Americans cast their ballots on Tuesday (Nov 3) to decide who will occupy the White House for the next four years - incumbent Republican President Donald Trump or his Democratic rival, former vice-president Joe Biden.

Here's a look at two scenarios.

CONTESTED RESULT

Election issues, such as a contested result in a key swing state, could lead to no candidate getting an outright majority of 270 electoral votes. In this situation, the House of Representatives will choose the new president from the top three candidates. Each of the 50 states gets one vote and the candidate who wins at least 26 state votes becomes president.

The Senate elects the vice-president from the two remaining candidates, with each of the 100 senators getting a vote. This Congress session will be led by Republican Vice-President Mike Pence, the Senate's current president.

Only twice in American history was its president elected this way: in 1800 and in 1824.

More likely is a situation like the one in Florida in 2000, when the result was close enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law.

This led to legal battles between the Bush and Gore campaigns that ultimately ended with a US Supreme Court ruling to stop the recount. Republican candidate George W. Bush went on to be president while his Democratic opponent Al Gore conceded instead of escalating the situation to Congress.

Mr Trump has said, more than once, that the 2020 election could end up with a decision by the Supreme Court.

Republicans are committed to nominating and installing Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a conservative, to the court by Election Day, which would bring the number of Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices to three of the nine spots.

But that does not necessarily mean they will weigh in in his favour if it comes down to that. The Supreme Court may even decide not to rule on what it sees as a political matter.

This outcome may also change depending on whether the Republicans keep or lose the Senate.

TRUMP DOES NOT ACCEPT LOSS

Mr Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to accepting the result of the election if he loses, raising a possibility that he may say no to leaving the White House.

States are bracing themselves for a surge of mail-in ballots, and given the pandemic, nearly half of the Democrats say they are planning to vote by mail compared with only a quarter of Republicans who say the same. This raises the possibility that votes counted earlier may show an early Trump victory, only for his lead to erode.

Should this happen, Mr Trump may call the results rigged, triggering protests from his supporters and efforts from his campaign to ask the courts to reject some mail-in ballots as invalid.

This also depends on a Biden margin of victory. If his opponent wins by a landslide, Mr Trump may lose the support of the Republican Party, and may even be physically removed from the White House, likely by the Secret Service.

But if he and the Republicans dig their heels in, it may trigger an unprecedented constitutional crisis, especially if the situation is unresolved by Inauguration Day.

Quite likely, unrest may hit the streets.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on October 04, 2020, with the headline US presidential election scenarios: What could happen after polls close . Subscribe