Warning signs abound for Republicans as midterm campaign begins final sprint

WASHINGTON – As the unofficial start of the campaign sprint kicks off on Labour Day on Sept 7, US President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity is imperilling Republican chances of maintaining their narrow majorities in Congress with just two months before November’s midterm elections.

Midterm elections are, above all, a referendum on the occupant of the White House, according to election experts.

That is even more of a truism in the era of Trump, who has spent the better part of a decade as the country’s dominant political figure and could face stiff political headwinds in his final two years in office.

If Democrats win a majority in the US House of Representatives, as appears likely, the party would be able to open damaging investigations into Trump’s administration while forcing the White House to compromise on most legislation.

Party leaders have already vowed to launch probes into what they describe as Trump’s corruption.

The race for US Senate control is much too close to call, according to analysts, but a Democratic majority in that chamber could block many of Trump’s nominees, including any Supreme Court justices in the event of a high court vacancy.

While Democrats face their own challenges, including an ideological divide between their centre and left flank, Trump’s unfavourability has become a political anchor for Republicans.

His approval ratings are mired at an all-time low, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey, with broad majorities dissatisfied with the war in Iran and the economy.

His net disapproval is nearly twice what it was at the same point in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 seats in the House.

Democrats express more enthusiasm about voting than Republicans, a finding backed up by robust Democratic turnout in recent special and primary elections. Registered voters say they prefer Democratic candidates to Republican candidates by 5 percentage points.

Democrats also have the weight of history in their favour. The incumbent president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938.

“I think that there is just a general sense that the President is not focused on the No. 1 issue with voters, which is affordability,” said Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report. “If you want to voice your displeasure with the President, the only way you can do that during the midterm elections is by voting against his party.”

That said, Democrats face challenges of their own as insurgent progressive candidates, including democratic socialists, have defeated establishment-backed moderates in a series of intra-party contests, raising questions about the party’s leadership, messaging and unity.

Republicans retain several structural advantages.

In the House, where Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 edge, the party could net as many as 10 additional seats based solely on redrawn maps after winning an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war.

All 435 House of Representatives seats and about a third of the 100 seats in the Senate are on the ballot in the Nov 3 election.

Winning in Trump country

The Senate map, meanwhile, is even more inhospitable for Democrats.

Even if they prevail in tough races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, Democrats would still need to win at least two of four states where Trump won in 2024 by double digits: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

While Democratic candidates nationally have outraised their Republican opponents, Republican national party committees and Republican-aligned super PACs have far outstripped Democratic counterparts. Trump’s own super PAC is sitting on a US$400 million (S$506 million) war chest.

“There is no doubt Democrats will win the national popular vote,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist. “It’s a question of whether those structural barriers prevent them from winning the majority.”

Republicans, led by Trump, have sought to portray Democrats as socialists and even communists, pointing to candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan.

“This is a ‘Contrast for America’ year,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said, in a nod to Republicans’ “Contract with America” midterm campaign in 1994. “It’s a contrast between common sense and crazy.”

Whether those attacks will land amid widespread frustration over affordability is unclear. In particular, several states with high-profile Senate races may be feeling outsized impacts from some of Trump’s policies.

In Iowa, farmers have been hit by rising energy costs and Trump’s tariffs, while Texas cattle ranchers were angered by his decision to lift import taxes on foreign beef. Michigan and Maine could suffer from Trump’s escalating trade war with neighbouring Canada.

Republicans will hold an unusual midterm convention this week, an event party officials hope will re-energise its base while reminding voters of Trump’s tax cuts and other accomplishments.

But the convention’s focus on Trump, who will speak on both nights, could also backfire by tying vulnerable Republicans to the President.

While affordability and the war are top issues, many campaigns will also focus on healthcare, Israel’s war in Gaza and the debate over data centres.

Election Day is still eight weeks away, an eternity given Trump’s unique ability to change the political conversation from one day to the next. But it may already be too late for Republicans to alter voters’ negative perception of the economy, analysts said.

“Can Republicans get their enthusiasm up some more?” said Kyle Kondik, an elections expert at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “The flip side is that there is no recovery, and Trump’s approval decline is terminal. That’s the big question of the election to me.” REUTERS