Tropical Storm Nicole to become a hurricane as it churns towards Florida

ORLANDO - Tropical Storm Nicole, barrelling toward the northwestern Bahamas early on Wednesday morning, was expected to reach hurricane strength before approaching Florida’s east coast later in the day or early on Thursday, forecasters said.

Nicole, which formed in the south-western Atlantic on Monday as a subtropical storm, was packing 112kmh winds early on Wednesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Centre.

As the storm moved west-southwest, hurricane warnings were in effect for the north-western Bahamas and a roughly 320km stretch of the Florida coast, meaning that winds of 119kmh or more were expected somewhere within in the area.

Tropical storm warnings or watches were in effect for parts of Georgia, Florida and South Carolina.

The centre of the storm was expected to sweep across central and northern Florida and into southern Georgia by Thursday night.

The hurricane centre said that it would be a large system, bringing hazards to much of Florida and parts of the southeastern United States.

Around 8cm to 13cm of rain was expected across the northwestern Bahamas and much of Florida through Friday.

The centre warned that up to 20cm could fall in some locations. Parts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina could also see water levels several feet above normal, it said.

Nicole’s impacts were already being felt in parts of the Bahamas on Tuesday afternoon, as emergency management officials there urged people in the affected areas to evacuate and secure their homes.

One of those seeking shelter was Ms Minnie Johnson, 72, of Dundas Town in the Abacos Islands.

When Hurricane Dorian slammed ashore as a Category 5 storm in September 2019, killing 74 people, Ms Johnson was at home with children and grandchildren. The back of her house still has no windows, she said.

“This is very scary,” she said of Nicole.

Nicole is expected to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Florida Peninsula, said Mr Jamie Rhome, acting director of the hurricane centre in Miami.

It is expected to “go across the state and then hook back”, he said.

That trajectory means that “regardless of where the centre tracks, a good portion of the Florida Peninsula will feel some of the impact” of wind and rain from the storm, Mr Rhome said.

Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida declared a state of emergency on Monday for 34 counties that could be in the path of the storm, authorising the state’s emergency management division to pursue emergency measures and seek federal assistance.

Florida Power & Light, which has 5.8 million customers statewide, urged customers to prepare for power outages. Nicole is arriving a little more than a month after Hurricane Ian came ashore on Florida’s west coast as a Category 4 storm, and Florida Power & Light officials warned that it could topple storm-weakened trees, causing outages.

Evacuation orders were issued for parts of Palm Beach County, including barrier islands and low-lying areas. The county’s mayor, Mr Robert Weinroth, said at a news conference that nine emergency shelters would open on Wednesday morning.

Officials in Volusia County, which is home to Daytona Beach, also announced mandatory evacuation orders beginning Wednesday morning, including for people who live in mobile homes and in low-lying areas, and for those who live east of Interstate 95 and the Intracoastal Waterway.

At the Kennedy Space Centre, Nasa officials elected to keep the 322-foot-tall Space Launch System rocket and Orion capsule on the launchpad before a test flight for a spacecraft that will one day carry astronauts to the moon.

However, Nasa said on Twitter on Tuesday that it was moving the scheduled launch to Nov 16 from Nov 14 “pending safe conditions for employees to return to work” after the storm.

Nicole is the third named storm to form in the Atlantic since Halloween, and the second this month. Although it may seem rare to have a named storm this late in the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov 30, half of the seasons since 1966 have had at least one named storm form in November, said Dr Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University.

Nicole’s winds stretch out 611km from the centre of the storm, according to an update from the hurricane centre on Tuesday afternoon. They pose a dual threat of dangerous winds and flooding.

Storm surge could reach 0.91m to 1.52m, and as much as 1.82m in spots along a large portion of Florida’s east coast.

The large wind field will consistently push water against the east coast of Florida and Georgia, bringing the risk of coastal flooding to a very populated region.

The links between hurricanes and climate change have become clearer with each passing year.

Data shows that hurricanes have become stronger worldwide during the past four decades. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms - although the overall number of storms could drop, because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.

Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapour in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate.

Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge – the most destructive element of tropical cyclones. NYTIMES