Taleban could overrun Kabul in 90 days, says US intelligence

KABUL/WASHINGTON • The Taleban could isolate Afghanistan's capital Kabul in 30 days and potentially take it over in 90 days, a US defence official told Reuters yesterday, citing a US intelligence assessment.

Taleban fighters have taken control of eight provincial capitals in six days, a pace that has surprised US officials. Taleban forces now control 65 per cent of Afghanistan and have taken or are threatening to take 11 provincial capitals, a senior European Union official said on Tuesday.

Taleban fighters took control of another city in northern Afghanistan yesterday, an official said, the eighth provincial capital to fall to the insurgents in six days as US-led foreign forces complete their withdrawal. The Taleban capture of Faizabad, the capital of the north-eastern province of Badakhshan, came as President Ashraf Ghani flew in to Mazar-i-Sharif to rally old warlords to the defence of the biggest city in the north as Taleban forces closed in.

In more victories, Taleban militants have taken control of Afghanistan's borders with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Russia's Kommersant daily reported yesterday, citing Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, heightening security concerns for Moscow. Until last month, US intelligence assessments warned that the Afghan government could fall in as little as six months. The US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the new assessment followed the rapid gains the Taleban had been making around Afghanistan.

"But this is not a foregone conclusion," the official said, adding that Afghan security forces could reverse the momentum by putting up more resistance against the insurgent group. It was not immediately clear if this was the consensus view of the intelligence community or if different intelligence agencies had different views, which would not be uncommon.

US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he did not regret his decision to pull US troops out of Afghanistan, and urged Afghanistan's leaders to unite and "fight for their nation" against the Taleban insurgents, noting that the United States had spent more than US$1 trillion (S$1.36 trillion) over 20 years and lost thousands of troops.

The US was providing significant air support, food, equipment and salaries to Afghan forces, he said. The US has essentially pulled all troops out of Afghanistan, except those staying to protect the US embassy and the airport in Kabul, with the military mission set to end on Aug 31.

The US will complete the withdrawal of its forces this month in exchange for Taleban promises to prevent Afghanistan being used for international terrorism.

The Taleban promised not to attack foreign forces as they withdraw, but did not agree to a ceasefire with the government. A commitment by the Taleban to talk peace with the government side has come to nothing as it eyes military victory.

Mr Jawad Mujadidi, a provincial council member from Badakhshan, said the Taleban had laid siege to Faizabad before launching an offensive on Tuesday.

"Unfortunately, after hours of heavy fighting, the ANDSF retreated," Mr Mujadidi told Reuters, referring to national security forces. "With the fall of Faizabad, the whole of the north-east has come under Taleban control."

Mr Ghani is now appealing for help from the old regional warlords he spent years sidelining as he attempted to project the authority of his central government over wayward provinces.

He was due to meet power brokers in Mazar-i-Sharif to work out coordination between the security forces and militias and operations to take back areas the Taleban captured, the President's office said.

The city is largely cut off from the rest of the country by the Taleban, which now also controls electricity supplies from northern neighbours to Kabul.

In the south, government forces were battling Taleban fighters around the city of Kandahar and thousands of civilians from outlying areas had taken refuge there, a resident said.

Fighting was also taking place in the city of Farah in the west, near the Iranian border, while the Ministry of Defence said in a statement that security forces had also battled the Taleban in Laghman, Logar, Paktia, Uruzgan, Zabul, Ghor, Balkh, Helmand, Kapisa and Baghlan provinces.

REUTERS, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE