ST Asian Insider video: America in crisis

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WASHINGTON - The United States is heading for its most divisive, ugliest and probably most violent election in our lifetimes, believes Dr Ian Bremmer, founder and president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group and it's subsidiary GZero Media.

"There are no boundaries on what President (Donald) Trump will do, or at least attempt to do, in order to ensure he is re-elected," Dr Bremmer told The Straits Times Asian Insider video series.

And "absolutely the losing side will see the vote as rigged and that's a real problem," he said.

Dr Bremmer made these remarks in conversation with this writer and host of the ST Asian Insider video series, in Episode 32.

Differences between the US and China have raised much concern with observers trying to ascertain if it will escalate in the months ahead of the US elections in November.

The US and China are heading into a Cold War, and if President Trump's approval ratings do not improve, he may well break the phase one trade deal he made with Beijing if he needs to look strong to his base, Dr Bremmer said.

Domestic politics in both China and the US were making the relationship worse, with Chinese President Xi Jinping willing to also play nationalism against President Trump, he added.

If President Trump wins re-election, there may be a real "pivot to Asia" as President Trump disengages the US from the Middle East and focuses more on China, he predicted.

But if Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden was to win in November, while he may be less unilateral and the US may re-engage in multilateral agreements and cultivate allies, the competition with China will remain.

Symbolically and diplomatically a Joe Biden administration would be "very different (but) I think in terms of actual policy a little less so than people think," Dr Bremmer said.

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