Biden ahead of Trump in 3 crucial Midwest states: Survey

NEW YORK • Republican President Donald Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden among registered voters in three Midwestern battleground states that he narrowly carried in 2016 and are seen as crucial to winning November's election, according to an Ipsos public opinion poll conducted for Reuters.

The poll, which ran from April 15 to 20 in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, showed 45 per cent of registered voters saying they would support Mr Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, while 39 per cent said they would support Mr Trump.

It also found that Mr Biden, vice-president under Mr Trump's predecessor Barack Obama, has an advantage of 3 percentage points among registered voters in Wisconsin, 6 points in Pennsylvania and 8 points in Michigan.

The Ipsos poll showed Mr Biden has maintained or slightly improved his lead over Mr Trump in those states over the past few months, even though his campaign and the presidential primaries have been sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic.

The United States has the most confirmed cases and deaths in the world with at least 821,000 people infected and at least 46,000 deaths.

Mr Biden's advantage in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania over Mr Trump averaged 3 to 4 percentage points in February and March, according to an aggregation of survey results by Real Clear Politics.

That would also suggest that Mr Trump has not experienced an uptick in support in the Midwest, even though he has commanded the public's attention at the helm of the federal response to the coronavirus crisis and sought to cast himself as a "wartime president" fighting an invisible enemy.

The Ipsos poll was conducted online with 612 registered voters in Michigan, 578 in Pennsylvania and 645 in Wisconsin. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the entire region and 5 points for each state.

Meanwhile, a separate Reuters/ Ipsos poll on Tuesday found that Mr Biden has an 8-point advantage over Mr Trump nationally, as support for him rose across the US in each of the last three weeks while disapproval of Mr Trump's response to the pandemic grew.

To be sure, anything can happen with several months to go before the Nov 3 general election.

State surveys in 2016 showed Democrat Hillary Clinton enjoyed wide leads over Mr Trump early in the election cycle in those same Midwestern states before she lost them to Mr Trump on election day, all of them by less than a percentage point.

Mr Trump is still a little more popular in the Midwestern battlegrounds than he is nationally, in part thanks to his appeal to some blue-collar white voters. Yet the number of registered voters who disapprove of Mr Trump outnumber those who approve of him in all three states, the Ipsos poll found.

In Wisconsin, 47 per cent of registered voters approve of the President, while 53 per cent disapprove. In Pennsylvania, 48 per cent approve and 52 per cent disapprove, and in Michigan, 44 per cent approve and 56 per cent disapprove.

The coronavirus is by far the top concern for residents of all three states. More than 70,000 people have tested positive in all three states combined and 4,500 have died.

REUTERS