MOSCOW/TOKYO • Russia is accelerating a military buildup on islands claimed by Japan, threatening to blow a hole in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts to lure President Vladimir Putin into settling the dispute.
The government in Tokyo lodged a formal protest after 2,000 Russian troops held military exercises earlier this month on the four islands, called the Southern Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan. A few days before, Russia paved the way for its first military airbase in the area.
Russia's twin strikes came as diplomats from both countries met on Feb 6 to discuss joint economic development of the territories.
Mr Abe the next day marked Japan's annual Northern Territories Day with a pledge that he and Mr Putin would resolve the "abnormal" lack of a peace treaty after World War II.
Failure to end the dispute over the islands seized by Soviet troops at the end of the war would deal a severe blow to Mr Abe, who has poured time and energy into seeking a breakthrough since coming to power in 2012.
For the Kremlin, cooler ties with Tokyo may put at risk promised Japanese investment and undermine Russian efforts to peel away a key US ally.
While determined to stay close to the US, Mr Abe is eager to strike a deal with Russia, partly to counterbalance China's growing economic and military power in the region.
The Japanese side has unrealistic ideas about the possible time frame for all this
MR FYODOR LUKYANOV, head of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin, saying that Russia is expanding its military presence to damp down expectations.
LIMITS TO FRIENDLY TIES
It's good to have warm relations at the top level, but just because you are friends doesn't mean they will give the islands back.
MR YASUHIDE NAKAYAMA, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Japan's Lower House of Parliament and a member of Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
"The Japanese side has unrealistic ideas about the possible time frame for all this," said Mr Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, a research group that advises the Kremlin. Russia is expanding its military presence "to damp expectations", he said.
The two leaders have met 20 times, including at a hot springs resort in Mr Abe's hometown of Nagato in 2016. He is due to visit Mr Putin's hometown in May to address the annual Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum.
The premier is also under fire at home.
"It's good to have warm relations at the top level, but just because you are friends doesn't mean they will give the islands back," said Mr Yasuhide Nakayama, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Japan's Lower House of Parliament and a member of Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party. Russia's military exercises sent "the worst possible message", he said.
Russia sent a clear signal that it was in no rush.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cautioned in a state television interview on Feb 11 that Russia and Japan need to build up their relations before reaching a territorial agreement, a process he said took more than 40 years with China.
"The Japanese side is in a hurry", and there'll be "enormous disappointment" if there is no progress, said Mr James Brown, an expert in Russo-Japanese relations at Temple University in Tokyo.
Mr Abe sought to break the deadlock in 2016 by proposing a joint plan to develop the windswept territories, which lie 25km from Japan's Hokkaido island. He offered help in fish farming, greenhouse farming, tourism, wind power and waste recycling.
While Russia welcomes the idea, the initiative has barely advanced because of a disagreement over whether the ventures would operate under Russian law.
That is a critical condition for Tokyo, because any dilution of Russian sovereignty could allow it to accept an offer first made by Moscow in 1956 to return the two smaller islands, said Mr Brown.
"If they can get a foothold back onto the islands, even with these small projects, then it means Japanese businesses are there, Japanese citizens can work there," he said.
"They can package that as a stepping-stone toward the return of all the islands."