An 86-year-old father stranded in California shows the real human toll of US air sanctions on Iran

ISTANBUL – Hossein-Reza’s plans to leave Iran for a trip to see friends and family in the Netherlands in October were waylaid by the US’ imposition of sanctions on the country’s aviation sector in August as part of Operation Economic Outcast – Washington’s attempt to isolate Iran economically.

Would he be able to secure a ticket to Amsterdam, he wondered? Would he be forced to travel by road to neighbouring Turkey or Armenia? 

While some respond to such uncertainty with anxiety or even dread, Hossein-Reza, a 40-something documentarist, was relaxed. 

After a year in Iran that included chaos and gunfire in the streets, warfare in the skies, internet blockages and economic devastation, as well as questions about the country’s very future, he is taking the travel hiccup in his stride. 

“I never even try to book a ticket until a day or two before I have to leave,” he said in an interview, on the condition that his full name not be published. 

The Iranians who spoke to the press did so under heavy risk, withholding their full names for fear of official reprisals for communicating with foreign journalists.

The US has placed some of the toughest financial restrictions on Iran ever imposed on an adversary – and the sanctions continue to intensify as the conflict drags on. 

The pressure campaign has gone far beyond travel bans on targeted individuals or sanctions on the weapons trade or dual-use goods to include, since September, punishments of third-country companies that do business with 27 airlines and companies in Iran’s civilian airline sector and restrictions on the country’s auto and rail industries.

The result has complicated the supply of some crucial medicines into the country as well as any travel and commerce. Flights to a number of neighbouring countries – including Iraq, Azerbaijan and Oman – have been cancelled.

However, air travel to Russia and China has not been affected, and sporadic flights to the major air hubs of Istanbul and Dubai continue. 

A video posted on social media platform X on Sept 24 showed a flight crew aboard an Iranian Varesh Airlines flight from Tehran to the Tajikistan capital of Dushanbe returning home after its route through Azerbaijani airspace was denied.

The severe sanctions on aviation add to what many describe as growing despair and malaise among many ordinary Iranians. 

“Iranians will be resilient as long as there is hope,” said one Western diplomat who recently left Tehran, speaking on condition of anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to the media. “But if there’s no light at the end of the tunnel, there is less reason to stay steadfast.”

Hamidreza Ahmadi, a Tehran tech entrepreneur, described growing frustration among ordinary Iranians as they struggle to understand the uncertainties the conflict has thrust upon their lives.

He described frustration over contradictory statements and goals by US President Donald Trump – from regime change, to a peace deal, to halting a nuclear programme supposedly destroyed in 2025, to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war began. 

“Geopolitically, everyone’s very, very confused,” he said. “Like, what do you mean America’s almost out of munitions? How could that be? They see Iran is getting weaker. They feel that. But they also see a bunch of Iranian missiles and a bunch of drones landing.”

Iranians describe difficulties in securing jobs, with youth unemployment rates estimated to be as high as 50%, a freezing of investment and business expansions, as well as price increases, including for subsidised fuel and petroleum products that are the lifeblood of the Iranian economy. Prices for some drugs have tripled, according to local reports, while food prices have soared.

Iran’s year-on-year inflation reached 84% in August. 

“Sanctions are something that, wherever you are on the political spectrum, affect you on a daily basis, and nobody can see a way out of it,” Ahmadi said in an interview. 

In theory, sanctions are supposed to punish the regime rather than ordinary people. But compliance experts say companies effectively refrain from doing even non-restricted commerce with entities linked to a country as heavily sanctioned as Iran.

Brett Erickson, founder of Obsidian Risk Advisors, a US consultancy focused on international crime and due diligence, told The Straits Times: “Most companies are going to de-risk and just not assume the legal hurdles that need to be jumped through.

“And that’s something we see with Gaza and Yemen and so many countries where technically, it is allowed. But in reality, we see huge shortfalls as a result of companies not wanting to assume the risk.”

Pharmaceuticals and foods are specifically excluded from sanctions, but companies often refrain just to avoid the hassles and hurdles of any trade with Iran. 

Trump administration officials and their supporters know that the sanctions hurt ordinary Iranians. But this is precisely the goal – raise public frustrations to a level where the people turn on the regime. Beyond sanctions, the US has very few options, experts said. 

“The problem with sanctions is we’ve plucked all the low-hanging fruit,” Alan Eyre, a former US State Department official who was part of the team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, said in an interview.

“We’ve plucked all the high-hanging fruit. We’ve cut the tree down. So it’s not as if there are a lot of super-duper effective sanctions that we haven’t used.”

The latest round of sanctions significantly differs from previous rounds because they focus on an entire sector of the economy, regardless of whether an individual or company is involved in any activity deemed harmful by the US.

Erickson said: “It essentially just cuts off the entire industry, regardless of whether it has a nexus to someone who is sanctioned by the US.

“It is a very significant measure. And again, it does need to be understood that the overwhelming hardship will be shouldered by the civilian population. Obviously, things can be transshipped into Russia and China and other countries that refuse to play ball, and that will be significant for the Iranian government.”

Observers are closely watching how aggressively Washington attempts to enforce sanctions on third countries such as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, as well as China, which has vowed to ignore them. But the sanctions may be the most severe that Iranians have faced, and potentially the hardest to circumvent.

Ali Ahmadi (no relation to Hamidreza Ahmadi), a fellow at the Switzerland-based Geneva Centre for Security Policy who regularly travels between Iran and the West, said: “They figure out how to operate within the parameters of the sanctions.” 

Ali Ahmadi was recently in Tehran and booked a flight on an obscure airline, which was cancelled at the last minute, but he managed to rebook on a different airline. “When I called the website I was buying the tickets from, they said, pick one of the more reputable, bigger names because they already know how to get through the sanctions,” he recalled. 

Others have found the new restrictions more challenging.

Maziar, a 42-year-old in Tehran, is struggling to bring his frail 86-year-old father home from a trip to visit relatives in California. 

“I’ve been trying to figure out the least exhausting path for my dad to get back to Iran,” he said, asking that his family name not be disclosed.

“We were hoping to use the Dubai route. But that’s no longer an option. We’re going to wait it out a bit longer and hope for a better option, and if the situation doesn’t change, we’ll have to use the land border crossing via Turkey.”

Even Iranians sympathetic to the US are angered by the latest US sanctions.

One impact of the latest round of restrictions has been the cancellation of the English-language proficiency tests required for overseas employment or education because the companies running the paid exams fear the wrath of the US Treasury Department.

Iranians who spent years on plans to study or move abroad have suddenly found their dreams thwarted. “On paper, sanctions are supposed to make the government weaker, but how is cancelling tests making the government weaker?” said one Tehran resident, who asked that her name not be published.  

Even as prices of food and medicine in Iran increase, there have been no reported shortages of luxury goods – another sign that the sanctions are mostly squeezing the poor. 

Observers have criticised the US strategy as rudderless, aimed more at satisfying Washington hawks’ demands for action rather than part of a cohesive strategy. 

Ahmadi from the Geneva Centre said: “Within the context of US policy as a whole, pressure for pressure’s sake has become ossified. Like you’ve got to do something. What’s the next measure? Do that. Istanbul Airport is probably kind of vulnerable to US sanctions. Okay, we’ll threaten to sanction them. There’s no strategy here.”

Iran experts, including former US officials, have publicly voiced doubt that ratcheting up economic pressure will convince the Iranian government to give in to US demands – in fact, it could have the opposite effect.

Eyre, the former State Department official, said: “The people running Iran think that if they just show any weakness in the face of all this pressure, it’s going to lead to them being swept out of power. That’s why sanctions are unlikely to work.”