New variant could cause S. Africa's daily cases to treble: Expert

JOHANNESBURG • The newly discovered Omicron variant is likely to fuel a surge in South Africa's coronavirus cases, possibly causing daily infections to treble this week, a top epidemiologist warned yesterday.

Health monitors reported over 2,800 new infections in the country on Sunday, up from a daily average of 500 in the previous week and 275 the week before.

"We can expect that higher transmissibility is likely and so we are going to get more cases quickly," Dr Salim Abdool Karim said at an online press briefing by the Health Ministry. "I am expecting we will top over 10,000 cases (a day) by the end of the week (and) see pressure on hospitals within the next two, three weeks."

South African scientists announced the new highly mutated variant last Thursday, blaming it for a sudden rise in infections in Africa's worst-hit nation.

Hospital admissions more than doubled over the past month in Gauteng, South Africa's most populous province and the epicentre of the new outbreak, according to official figures.

Gauteng, whose provincial capital is Johannesburg, has entered a fourth wave of infections that is expected to spread to the rest of the country by the year end, health officials said.

South Africa has recorded 2.9 million cases and 89,797 deaths, although these figures, proportionate to its population, are still significantly lower than those of other heavily affected countries, especially in Europe.

Health Minister Joe Phaahla said there was "absolutely no need to panic". "We have been here before," he said, referring to the Beta variant identified in South Africa last December.

The World Health Organisation has designated Omicron a variant of concern and is still assessing its virulence, but experts agree that it is likely to be highly infectious.

There is also fear that it could be more resistant to certain antibodies, although its ability to evade vaccines is still being assessed.

The severity of the disease it causes has also not yet been determined, but symptoms observed so far in South Africa have been relatively mild.

"Even if Omicron is not clinically worse, and certainly the anecdotes don't raise any red flags just yet... we are going to see (rising cases) in all likelihood because of the rapidity of transmission," Dr Karim said.

Dozens of countries have implemented travel bans on South Africa and its neighbours in a bid to keep Omicron out, although the variant has now been detected in at least 11 other countries.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday called on world governments to "urgently" and "immediately" reopen their borders to the region.

He accused rich countries of breaching pledges to support tourism in poorer nations which they made at a Group of 20 meeting last month, and denounced vaccine inequality.

"The only thing the prohibition on travel will do is further damage the economies of the affected countries," Mr Ramaphosa said.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE