JERUSALEM (BLOOMBERG) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and rival Benny Gantz failed to reach a power-sharing deal by a midnight Wednesday deadline (April 15), making a fourth round of back-to-back elections this summer increasingly likely.
Gantz, whose political bloc splintered over the talks, didn't ask President Reuven Rivlin for more time to try to seal a deal, suggesting he was pessimistic about the outcome. Rivlin has said if negotiations didn't yield an agreement, then he would give parliament three weeks to tap a candidate within its ranks to form a government.
Netanyahu, who's been indicted in three graft cases, stands a good chance to selected because he has widespread support in Knesset, though he doesn't command a majority. If he or any other candidate fails to build a coalition, a new national poll will be set.
The unravelling of the unity government negotiations didn't come as a shock. The talks began with a declared urgency to close ranks to tackle the coronavirus crisis and the damage it has wrought on the economy. But as the weeks went by, the outlook for their success darkened despite occasional declarations of optimism by both sides.
Israeli media reported that negotiations foundered over last-minute demands by Netanyahu related to his legal woes.
Some observers say Netanyahu engineered the negotiations with the ulterior motive of tearing apart Gantz's Blue and White bloc and destroying the most formidable rival he's faced in more than a decade. The two men fought to a draw in three rounds of voting over the past year.
From Netanyahu's point of view, new elections might be the preferred option, said Jonathan Spyer, researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
"Although cynical and Machiavellian, this might not be a dreadful possibility for Netanyahu," Spyer said. "He has splintered and destroyed Gantz's Blue and White list, and polls are indicating a good situation for right-wing coalition allies due to public satisfaction with the handling of the coronavirus."
The latest polls showed the nationalist-religious camp led by Netanyahu capturing 64 of parliament's 120 seats if elections were to be held today.
Gantz lost a big chunk of his political base after he reneged on his central campaign promise: never to sit in government with the prime minister while he's under indictment. A reunion with the 18 lawmakers who left his bloc now that power-sharing negotiations are off seems a stretch. Blue and White currently has 15 legislators.
Netanyahu is accused of illicitly accepting gifts and scheming with media moguls to influence legislation to their benefit in exchange for sympathetic coverage. His trial is due to begin in late May, and retaining power would give him an opportunity to try to push through legislation shielding a sitting leader from prosecution.
The urgency to form a governing coalition and avert a fourth round of elections has grown as the toll from the virus mounts. The number of confirmed cases has topped 12,000, with more than 130 dead.
A near-lockdown has crippled the economy, which is forecast to shrink by 5.3 per cent this year, according to the Bank of Israel. Unemployment has surged to 26 per cent and the Finance Ministry sees it still hovering around 10 per cent at the end of the year.
Gantz swung towards a power-sharing deal even though he received first crack at building a coalition. His only hope for forming a government without Netanyahu meant cooperating with the non-Zionist Joint List of Arab parties, but he faced resistance within his own camp.
The general, who's speaker of the Knesset, could try to disqualify Netanyahu from running in a fourth election by advancing legislation barring an indicted politician from serving as premier.
But the constitutionality of such a law would likely be challenged in Israel's High Court of Justice, especially because of its timing in the middle of an election cycle, according to constitutional law expert Suzie Navot.
