Lula leads Bolsonaro by 3 points in Brazil runoff scenario, Datafolha poll shows
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FILE PHOTO: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a candidate for reelection for the Workers' Party (PT), speaks during a campaign rally in Belem, Brazil, September 28, 2026. REUTERS/Marx Vasconcelos/File Photo
SAO PAULO, Oct 1 - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential runoff ahead of this month's election, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.
In a simulated runoff, Lula would receive 48% of the vote compared with 45% for Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. A previous Datafolha poll had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 47% to 45%.
• The result still represents a technical tie as the poll's margin of error is 2 percentage points
• In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (38%), Augusto Cury (4%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) and Renan Santos (3%)
• The previous Datafolha poll showed the leftist president with 40% against the right-wing senator's 36%
• If no candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff set for October 25
• Datafolha surveyed 2,506 people between September 29 and October 1 REUTERS