SINGAPORE - Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion are expected to grow by just under 1 per cent this year because of a strong expansion of renewables and electric vehicles, defying concerns about the effects of the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
Last year’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to a surge in demand for fossil fuels, especially gas and coal, as Russia cut off supplies to Europe.
An IEA analysis shows fossil fuel CO2 emissions are on course to rise by close to 300 million tonnes in 2022 to 33.8 billion tonnes – a far smaller rise than their jump of nearly 2 billion tonnes in 2021. The increase This year’s increase is driven by power generation and the aviation sector, as air travel rebounds from pandemic lows.
The IEA said the rise in global CO2 emissions this year would have been larger – more than tripling to reach close to 1 billion tonnes – were it not for the major deployments of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles (EVs) around the world.
Even though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has propped up global coal demand in 2022 by making natural gas far more expensive, the relatively small increase in coal emissions has been considerably outweighed by the expansion of renewables, IEA said..
The combined result is that the CO2 intensity of the world’s energy supply is set to improve slightly in 2022, resuming a years-long trend of consistent improvement disrupted last year by the economic recovery from Covid-19.
Burning fossil fuels is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions heating up the planet and changing the world’s climate.
The findings come less than three weeks before delegates from nearly 200 nations gather in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El Sheikh for the COP27 climate talks, where emissions cuts will be a top focus.
The United Nations’ climate science panel said deep emissions cuts must happen this decade to avert catastrophic climate impacts, such as the floods in Pakistan, Hurricane Ian in Florida and the summer heatwaves and wildfires in Europe.
“The global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a scramble by many countries to use other energy sources to replace the natural gas supplies that Russia has withheld from the market. The encouraging news is that solar and wind are filling much of the gap, with the uptick in coal appearing to be relatively small and temporary,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. He said policy actions by governments are driving structural changes in the energy economy, and those changes are set to accelerate thanks to the major clean energy policy plans that have advanced around the world in recent months”.
Solar and wind are leading an increase in global renewable electricity generation in 2022 of more than 700 terawatt-hours (TWh), the largest annual rise on record, IEA said. Without this increase, global CO2 emissions would be more than 600 million tonnes higher this year.
The rapid deployment of solar and wind is on course to account for two-thirds of the growth in renewable power generation.
While wind and solar electricity generation is growing more than any other source in 2022, coal is expected to post the next largest increase as some countries revert to its use in response to soaring natural gas prices.
In total, global CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generation are set to grow by more than 200 million tonnes, or 2 per cent, this year, led by increases in Asia.
The European Union’s CO2 emissions are set to fall this year despite higher coal emissions. The rise in European coal use is likely to be temporary, with a strong pipeline of new renewable projects forecast to add around 50 gigawatts of capacity in 2023.
In China, CO2 emissions are set to remain broadly flat this year, reflecting weaker economic growth, the impact of drought on hydropower, and major use of solar and wind.
The world’s use of natural gas is expected to decline following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulting in a fall in CO2 emissions of around 40 million tonnes in 2022.
Demand for oil is set to grow in 2022, with oil-related CO2 emissions up by around 180 million tonnes. Aviation is expected to contribute around three-quarters of the rise in emissions from oil use, notably due to increases in international air travel.