Experts divided on response to rapid spread of 'milder' variant

NEW YORK • The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is blazing around the world with such speed that it appears to be simply too fast to catch.

That daunting notion - backed by data from nations where Omicron is spreading rapidly only a month after it was first detected - is tempered by early evidence that the variant causes milder symptoms, with vaccinations and boosters helping to prevent serious illness and death.

Experts worldwide have expressed concern that the sheer number of people likely to be infected could create a flood of patients, overwhelming already stressed healthcare systems.

But that concern is running up against those who argue that it is time to accept that the virus is endemic and that countries should move away from lockdowns and towards more relaxed rules.

"The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago of intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely, that is now history, in my view," said Professor John Bell, an adviser to the British government.

Britain appears to be a few weeks ahead of most other nations in confronting the first wave of Omicron infection and, for the moment, has decided that the evidence does not warrant new restrictions.

Mr Chris Hopson, head of NHS Providers, the membership organisation for England's health staff, said that while hospitalisations across Britain had risen, it was not a precipitous jump.

"What's very interesting is how many are talking about the number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for Covid-19," he said.

Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, said the approach to the current rise in infections is a complicated one.

"If health services are likely to come under such pressure that they could collapse, then implementing control measures now would be the right thing to do," he wrote in a post on Twitter.

"But tighter control measures carry a real risk, and not just to mental health, the economy, etc."

Forcing a change in behaviour would not prevent infections, just delay them, he added.

"So is it better to reduce the peak now but with the risk that because of waning vaccine immunity overall, more people may suffer severe disease in the long term? That is what makes this decision so difficult. There is no easy answer."

With or without regulations to curb the spread of the coronavirus, positive test results are disrupting businesses around the world. Over the Christmas holidays, Omicron wreaked havoc on global travel, entertainment and sporting events.

To limit the disruption, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has shortened the recommended time that Americans should isolate after testing positive if they are asymptomatic to five days instead of 10.

The agency also did not recommend rapid testing before people left isolation.

The CDC's decision drew both tempered support and intense opposition from scientists, fearful that the omission could hasten Omicron's spread.

The new guidance seemed to some scientists like a necessary step to shore up workforces in essential industries. And encouraging people to leave isolation early after testing negative could spare them the hardships of prolonged periods at home.

But letting hundreds of thousands of infected people forgo those tests - even if, crucially, their symptoms were not entirely gone - risks seeding new cases and heaping even more pressure on overburdened health systems.

"This feels honestly more about economics than about the science," said Dr Yonatan Grad, an associate professor of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. "I suspect what it will do is result in... more opportunities for transmission."

CDC director Rochelle Walensky said the new guidance had been necessitated by the volume of people about to be infected. Rapid tests were also not effective enough at diagnosing infectiousness in people, she said.

But some scientists maintain that rapid tests are the most convenient indication of whether or not someone remains contagious.

The first case of Omicron in the United States was detected only on Dec 1, but the CDC estimated on Tuesday that it accounted for over 58 per cent of Covid-19 variants circulating in the country last week.

NYTIMES