World will feel loss of grain exports by summer: Ukraine

LVIV/MOSCOW • Ukraine's agriculture minister has warned that by midsummer, the world will start to feel the squeeze on food supplies and rising grain prices caused by Russia's blockade of Ukrainian sea exports.

Global food distribution networks, still recovering from the shocks of the pandemic, are now facing a new crisis as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine - the two countries that together supplied more than a quarter of the world's wheat.

"Countries right now still have some reserves, and they are still under the general hope that somehow, this will work itself out," Mr Mykola Solskyi said in an interview with The New York Times.

"But when they see in July or August that they are running out of grain, and the prices are extremely high, then the world will start to show a lot of emotions. There will be problems because of it."

Fears of a global food crisis are intensifying amid concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin is using food as a potent new weapon in the conflict.

Russian forces, in addition to bombarding and seizing large swathes of Ukraine's fertile farmland, have taken over some ports and blockaded the remaining sea routes on the Black Sea used for exporting most of Ukraine's wheat, barley, corn, sunflower seeds and rapeseed oils.

United Nations-monitored talks are attempting to reach a deal for sea exports, Mr Solskyi said. But he rejected a proposal floated on Wednesday by Russia's deputy foreign minister to open sea routes in exchange for lifting some sanctions on Russia.

European and Ukrainian officials have been scrambling to bring the country's harvests to global markets via trucks, railroads, river barges and other alternative routes.

But these options are complicated. Exporting by land out of western Ukraine means passing through border crossings that require trucks to wait in line for days.

The other option, transport by rail, requires adapting train cars to tracks of different widths, a major logistical headache.

According to the country's main agricultural lobby, land routes working at optimal capacity could bring out only three million tonnes a month - about two-thirds of what the country normally exports.

"It's impossible to solve the problem completely without the sea," Mr Solskyi said.

Ukrainian farmers say Russian forces have also stolen large quantities of their stored grain.

The minister warned international traders against buying stolen Ukrainian grain, saying Kyiv would seek to sanction those who profited from stolen grain.

Meanwhile, Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev told a grain conference yesterday that Russia will have 50 million tonnes of grain available for export in the new July-June marketing season, up from more than 37 million tonnes in the current season.

It continues to export despite difficulties with logistics and payments caused by Western sanctions on Moscow over what Russia terms its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Before Russia sent troops into Ukraine on Feb 24, Ukraine had the capacity to export up to six million tonnes of wheat, barley and maize a month. But exports collapsed to just 300,000 tonnes in March and 1.1 million in April.

While the government wants to lift that to two million, it is hitting logistical bottlenecks, such as a lack of train wagons, fuel and trucks, obstacles that could take years and billions of dollars to overcome.

Mr Roman Rusakov, a senior official in Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry, told Reuters: "Ports are necessary. But, having said that, we certainly will improve our railway logistics. Meanwhile, (river) ports will be in place to do a good job. But will it be enough to reach the target of like six (or) seven million a month? No way."

NYTIMES, REUTERS