Johnson's tough Brexit stance could spark crisis at home

British lawmakers insist new PM clinches divorce deal before Oct 31

Boris Johnson, leader of the Britain's Conservative Party, leaves a private reception in London, on July 23, 2019. PHOTO: REUTERS

LONDON • Mr Boris Johnson's convincing victory in a Conservative Party leadership contest catapults the United Kingdom towards a showdown with the EU and a constitutional crisis at home.

This comes as British lawmakers vow to bring down any government that tries to leave the bloc without a divorce deal.

The victory for one of Britain's most flamboyant politicians places an avowed Brexit supporter in charge of the government for the first time since Britain voted to leave the European Union in the shock 2016 referendum.

Mr Johnson has pledged to negotiate a new Brexit divorce deal with the EU to secure a smooth transition before Oct 31. But if the bloc refuses, as it insists it will, he has promised to leave anyway - "do or die" - on the agreed date.

The new Conservative leader faces stiff resistance at home over his plans for a no-deal Brexit. The Conservatives have no majority in Parliament and need the support of 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland's Brexit-backing Democratic Unionist Party in order to govern.

Even then, the majority is wafer-thin - and some lawmakers have threatened to bring down the government, a step that would probably deepen Britain's political crisis and lead to an election.

Mr Johnson has refused to rule out suspending Parliament to achieve a no-deal Brexit.

He has promised to step up preparations for such a no-deal scenario to ensure the inevitable economic damage and disruption to trade are minimised, as far as possible.

But it is a step that many investors and economists say would send shock waves through world markets and tip the world's fifth-largest economy into recession or even chaos.

A Brexit without a divorce deal would also weaken London's position as the pre-eminent international financial centre while jolting the northern European economy.

British business leaders yesterday urged Mr Johnson to avoid taking the country out of the EU without a Brexit deal.

"The new prime minister must not underestimate the benefits of a good deal," said Ms Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, the country's biggest employers' organisation, which represents some 190,000 businesses.

The British Chambers of Commerce, which also represents thousands of firms, urged Mr Johnson to spell out how he would avoid a chaotic no-deal Brexit.

Some Conservatives believe a general election is inevitable, and Mr Johnson's team has been war-gaming the options for a snap poll.

Mr Johnson's main aim is to strip out the so-called backstop guarantee plan for the Irish border from the Brexit deal, a protocol designed to ensure there is never a hard frontier with checkpoints and security guards at the land border between Ireland and the UK. This is what the die-hard Brexiters want of him.

But even as the EU congratulated Mr Johnson on his win, it was firm that it would not heed his election promises of renegotiating Brexit.

Minutes before Mr Johnson's victory was announced, the European Commission's deputy head Frans Timmermans said the bloc would not agree to change the deal it had sealed with outgoing British leader Theresa May.

That deal was rejected three times by the British Parliament.

"The United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the European Union will stick to that agreement," Mr Timmermans told a news conference.

He also said the EU would hold the line on Brexit and that Mr Johnson's flamboyant "character or persona or attitude" made no difference. "A no-deal Brexit, a hard Brexit, would be a tragedy - for all sides, not just for the United Kingdom," Mr Timmermans said.

"We are all going to suffer if that happens."

REUTERS, BLOOMBERG, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on July 24, 2019, with the headline Johnson's tough Brexit stance could spark crisis at home. Subscribe