French regional ballot leaves field open for presidential race

PARIS • The outcome of next year's French presidential election looks increasingly uncertain after incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who lead national polls, registered dismal showings in a regional ballot on Sunday.

Mr Macron's LREM group, which upended France's two-party system in 2017, is set to get just 6.7 per cent of the nationwide vote to renew metropolitan councils, according to exit polls.

Ms Le Pen's National Rally is on track to garner 19.8 per cent, a worse showing than in the last regional election in 2015.

The final nationwide tally was expected late yesterday.

A record low turnout makes it hard to read too much into the results. And local races do not tend to indicate what would happen in a presidential election.

Yet the traditional centre-right looked set to obtain 38.8 per cent of the votes and left-leaning parties 34.7 per cent, a boost they will try to use to gain momentum as the campaigns go into high gear.

"The field is really open," said Mr Emmanuel Riviere, head of international polling and political advisory at Kantar. "It's hard to say today who will be present in the second round of the presidential election."

Among possible candidates is Mr Xavier Bertrand, a conservative re-elected in the northern Hauts-de-France region, who has made it clear that he is planning to throw his hat in the ring next April.

"The path of hope starts now, starts here," he said on Sunday.

Others include Mr Laurent Wauquiez, who is set to take the region around Lyon, and Mrs Valerie Pecresse, who defeated a green-led left-wing coalition and came out first in the Paris region.

Both Mrs Pecresse and Mr Bertrand are from the right wing, and former members of the conservative Republican party.

On the left, Mr Julien Bayou, head of Europe-Ecology The Greens, has emerged as a strong potential candidate, along with far-left France Unbowed party leader Jean-Luc Melenchon; Ms Anne Hidalgo, Paris' socialist mayor; and Mr Yannick Jadot, a green Member of the European Parliament.

Mr Macron's party fared poorly in the first round of this vote, and is not expected to win any region on its own, a repeat of last year's failure to secure any major cities in the municipal elections.

Not having a strong local base did not prevent Mr Macron from winning the top job in 2017, and his popularity has recently jumped close to 50 per cent. In France, the president's personality matters more than anything else.

But the dismal showing could discourage grassroots supporters and the party members he will need to drive his presidential campaign.

With surveys suggesting the French are inching to the right, both Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen have been focusing on security, immigration and the role of religion in society.

Mr Thierry Mariani, Ms Le Pen's candidate in the Provence-Alpes-Cote-d'Azur region that is home to Marseille, lost by 17 points. He had been her best chance to conquer a region for the first time.

Ms Le Pen's National Rally appears to have alienated her base in trying to moderate the views of the anti-immigration party founded by her father, according to pollster Ifop's head of opinion Jean-Philippe Dubrulle. That could rekindle internal divisions within the movement.

All eyes will be on Ms Le Pen's niece - the more conservative Ms Marion Marechal-Le Pen - who left the party after her aunt failed to beat Mr Macron in 2017. Ms Marechal-Le Pen is expected to try and succeed her aunt.

BLOOMBERG