Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy gives a voice to obstinate Russian sympathies

PARIS – Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy was once known as “Sarko the American” for his love of free markets, freewheeling debate and Elvis Presley. Of late, however, he has appeared more like “Sarko the Russian”, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ruthlessness appears more evident than ever.

Mr Sarkozy, who was president from 2007 to 2012, in interviews coinciding with the publication of a memoir, said that reversing Russia’s annexation of Crimea was “illusory”, ruled out Ukraine joining the European Union or NATO because it must remain “neutral”, and insisted that Russia and France “need each other”.

“People tell me Vladimir Putin isn’t the same man that I met. I don’t find that convincing. I’ve had tens of conversations with him. He is not irrational,” he told Le Figaro. “European interests aren’t aligned with American interests this time.”

His statements, to the newspaper as well as to TF1 television network, were unusual for a former president in that they are profoundly at odds with official French policy. They provoked outrage from the Ukrainian ambassador to France and condemnation from several French politicians, including President Emmanuel Macron.

The remarks also underscored the strength of the lingering pockets of pro-Putin sympathy that persist in Europe. Those voices have been muffled since Europe forged a unified stand against Russia, through successive rounds of economic sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine.

The possibility they may grow louder appears to have risen as Ukraine’s counter-offensive has proved underwhelming so far.

“The fact the counter-offensive has not worked up to now means a very long war of uncertain outcome,” said Ms Nicole Bacharan, a political scientist at Paris university Sciences Po. “There is the risk of political and financial weariness among Western powers that would weaken Ukraine.”

In France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere, not even the evident atrocities of the Russian onslaught against Ukraine have stripped away the affinity for Russia traditionally found on the far right and far left. This also extends at times to establishment politicians like Mr Sarkozy, who feel some ideological kinship with Russia, blame NATO expansion eastward for the war or eye monetary gain.

From Germany, where former Social Democrat Chancellor Gerhard Schroder is the most prominent supporter of Mr Putin, to Italy, where former prime minister Giuseppe Conte of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement has spoken out against arms shipments to Ukraine, some politicians seem unswerving in their support for Mr Putin.

France, like Germany, has always had a significant number of Russophiles and admirers of Mr Putin, whatever his amply illustrated readiness to eliminate opponents – most recently, it seems, his sometime sidekick turned upstart rival, Mr Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a brief mutiny two months ago.

The sympathisers range from Mr Sarkozy’s Gaullist centre right, with its simmering resentment of US power in Europe and admiration for strong leaders, to Ms Marine Le Pen’s far right, enamoured of Mr Putin’s stand for family, faith and fatherland against a supposedly decadent West.

The extreme left, in a hangover from Soviet times, also has a lingering sympathy for Russia that the 18-month-long war has not eradicated.

Still, Mr Sarkozy’s outspokenness was striking, as was his unequivocal pro-Russian tone and provocative timing.

“Gaullist equidistance between the United States and Russia is an old story, but what Mr Sarkozy said was shocking,” Ms Bacharan said. “We are at war, and democracies stand with Ukraine, while the autocracies of the world are with Mr Putin.”

The obstinacy of the French right’s emotional bond with Russia owes much to a recurrent Gallic great-power itch and to the resentment of the extent of American post-war dominance, evident in the current French-led quest for European “strategic autonomy”.

Even Mr Macron, a centrist, said as recently as 2019 that “Russia is European, very profoundly so, and we believe in this Europe that stretches from Lisbon to Vladivostok.”

With Mr Putin, Russian rapprochement has also been about money. Ms Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party took a Russian loan; former prime minister Francois Fillon joined the boards of two Russian firms (before quitting in 2022 in protest at the war); and Mr Sarkozy has been under investigation since 2021 over a €3 million (about S$4.4 million) contract with a Russian insurance company.

This financial connection with Moscow has undermined Mr Sarkozy’s credibility but has not made him less vocal.

He urged Mr Macron, with whom he regularly confers, to “renew dialogue” with Mr Putin, called for the “ratification” of Crimea’s annexation through an internationally supervised referendum, and said referendums should also be organised in the eastern Donbas region to settle how land there is divided between Ukraine and Russia.

If the West’s goal was to leverage major military gains through the Ukrainian counter-offensive into a favourable Ukrainian negotiating position with Moscow – as suggested earlier in 2023 by senior officials in Washington and Europe – then that scenario looks distant for the moment.

This, in turn, may place greater pressure over time on Western unity and resolve as the US presidential election looms in 2024.

In Italy, the most vocal supporter of Mr Putin was Mr Silvio Berlusconi, a four-time prime minister who died a few months ago. Ms Giorgia Meloni, who as Prime Minister leads a far-right government, has held to a pro-Ukrainian line, despite the sympathies of far-right movements throughout Europe for Mr Putin.

Mr Conte recently declared that “the military strategy is not working”, even as it takes a devastating financial toll.

In France, Ms Segolene Royal, a prominent former socialist candidate for the presidency who has denounced Ukrainian claims of Russian atrocities as “propaganda”, announced this past week that she intended to lead a united left-wing group in European Parliament elections in 2024. It was another small sign of a potential resurgence of pro-Russian sentiment.

Mr Putin has used frozen conflicts to his advantage in Georgia and elsewhere. If there is no victory for either side in Ukraine before the US election in November 2024, “the outcome of the war will be decided in the United States”, Ms Bacharan said. NYTIMES