Foreign minister Liz Truss eyes leadership run-off with Sunak as UK Tories vote again
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Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is now the favourite to join former finance minister Rishi Sunak in the final ballot.
PHOTO: EPA-EFE
LONDON (BLOOMBERG, REUTERS) - Conservative members of Parliament on Wednesday (July 20) will decide which two candidates face off in the battle to replace Boris Johnson as British prime minister, with Foreign Secretary Liz Truss now the favourite to join former finance minister Rishi Sunak in the final ballot.
Mr Sunak on Tuesday topped a fourth ballot of Tory lawmakers with 118 votes, just two short of the threshold that would guarantee the former Chancellor of the Exchequer a spot in the runoff.
But it is the battle for second that is heating up, as Ms Truss closed the gap on Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt, who has been runner-up to Mr Sunak in each round of voting, but is now losing steam. Momentum and mathematics now appear to favour the foreign secretary in the race for No. 10.
The result of the fifth and final ballot of Tory MPs will be announced at 4pm Wednesday (11pm in Singapore).
Lawmakers will eliminate one more before the governing party’s 200,000 members choose their new leader, who will automatically become prime minister.
Unlike in 2019, when Mr Johnson was a clear favourite going into the contest, the result is more difficult to forecast this time round, with polls of party members suggesting Mr Sunak would lose to whoever is chosen to face him.
Unlike in 2019, when Mr Johnson was a clear favourite going into the contest, the result is more difficult to forecast this time round, with polls of party members suggesting Mr Sunak would lose to whoever is chosen to face him.
At stake is a chance for the candidates to put their case to the Conservative Party grassroots over the remainder of the summer.
All three will want to woo supporters of Mrs Badenoch, a relative unknown who has won a following for what some described as her criticism of so-called “woke” ideas.
They will also be keen to buttress their right-wing credentials to appeal to a party membership, which, according to 2020 research by Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University Party Members Project, tends to be older, male, southern English and supporters of Brexit.
These grassroots party members will vote for their next leader in a postal ballot with the result due Sept 5.
They will also be keen to buttress their right-wing credentials to appeal to a party membership, which, according to 2020 research by Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University Party Members Project, tends to be older, male, southern English and supporters of Brexit.
These grassroots party members will vote for their next leader in a postal ballot with the result due Sept 5.
Ahead of the vote, Ms Truss and Ms Mordaunt are battling to win the support of the all-important 59 MPs who had backed Mrs Badenoch. The foreign secretary now trails Ms Mordaunt by just six votes, and appears a more natural fit to win over those MPs.
Supporters of both Ms Truss and Ms Mordaunt were quick to praise Mrs Badenoch, who has held several junior ministerial posts while never serving in the Cabinet.
Ms Mordaunt praised Mrs Badenoch's "fresh thinking and bold policies". But the reality is it will be a challenge for her to win over many of Mrs Badenoch's backers. The trade minister comes from the One Nation centrist wing of the Tory party, and Mrs Badenoch is firmly on the right. The two contenders sparred in television debates on issues such as Ms Mordaunt's record on transgender rights.
Mrs Badenoch is also seen as a close ally of Mr Sunak, and some of her supporters, such as former Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove, may switch over to him. Mrs Badenoch herself may make an announcement on who she is supporting before Wednesday's vote.
If Mrs Badenoch's backers divide up largely between Mr Sunak and Ms Truss, then the foreign secretary should be able to overcome her deficit to Ms Mordaunt and clinch second place.
Tactical voting
But the voting intentions of Tory MPs in leadership contests are always complex and unpredictable, and there have been accusations of tactical voting and vote-lending over the past few days.
It is possible that Mr Sunak has built such a commanding lead in terms of supporters that he might lend votes to whoever he perceives to be the weaker candidate, most likely Ms Mordaunt. Mr Sunak's team deny any game-playing and insist they are fighting for every vote.
Ms Truss' improved hopes of reaching the final two were reflected in the betting odds offered by British bookmakers after Tuesday's vote. Ladbrokes made her the even favourite to emerge as the eventual victor, with Mr Sunak close behind at 5-to-4. Ms Mordaunt, who only a few days ago herself was the favourite, is now rated a 7-to-1 chance.
The latest YouGov poll of Conservative members on Tuesday suggested that Mr Sunak would lose against either Ms Truss or Ms Mordaunt, although members' opinions appear volatile and could easily change over the coming campaign.
