For Trump, EU trade deal was badly needed

EDINBURGH, Scotland - For months, US President Donald Trump’s penchant for overhyping the speed at which he could negotiate complex trade deals has been the butt of Washington jokes.

“Ninety days ago, Donald Trump promised the world that his tariffs would lead to 90 deals in 90 days,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said in July, adding: “By my count, he’s about 88 trade deals short.”

So on July 27, when Mr Trump announced a trade agreement with the European Union, it was not only his biggest trade deal to date, but also, politically, his most badly needed.

After going months without securing deals, Mr Trump is now coming off his most productive stretch of trade negotiations, landing agreements in recent days with the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia as well as the European Union, which represents 27 countries.

The deal with the European Union, at least upon first impression, seemed to give Mr Trump much of what he wanted.

“I’m very surprised how the European Union gave in to Trump’s demands,” said Professor Douglas Irwin, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College. “I thought the EU would be the most prone to retaliation. And yet, they didn’t do it. They really gave in to most of what Trump wanted.”

Though many details of the agreement were unclear, the EU and the United States agreed on July 27 to a broad-brush trade deal that sets

a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods,

including cars, averting what could have become a painful trade war with a bloc that is the US’ single biggest source of imports.

The EU also agreed to purchase US$750 billion (S$960 billion) of US energy, which Dr Ursula von der Leyen, president of the EU’s executive branch, said would be spread over three years.

That, she noted, is roughly the length of Mr Trump’s remaining term in office. The bloc also agreed to increase its investment in the US by more than US$600 billion.

The two sides agreed to drop tariffs to zero on a range of goods including aircraft, plane parts, certain chemicals, certain generic drugs, semiconductor equipment and some agricultural products, Dr von der Leyen said.

She acknowledged that the tariffs could prove tough for some European businesses, but defended the deal in light of higher tariffs Mr Trump had threatened.

“Fifteen per cent is not to be underestimated, but it is the best we could get,” she said.

It was a positive political development for Mr Trump on a number of fronts.

Economists have mostly been sour on the idea of his sweeping tariffs, warning of dire consequences including inflation and rising unemployment. And even as many criticised the wisdom of Mr Trump’s economic policies, his administration came under added fire over its struggle to negotiate deals.

The agreement with the EU, the America’s largest trading partner, may tamp down some of the criticism.

The agreement may also offer Mr Trump a way to divert the news cycle from his administration’s

handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files

, a controversy that has dogged him for weeks.

At a news conference on the trade deal, a reporter asked Mr Trump whether he had rushed the agreement forward in an attempt to knock the Epstein story line out of the news.

“You’ve got to be kidding,” a frustrated Mr Trump responded. “That had nothing to do with it.”

Trade negotiations are famously complex and time-consuming, so most analysts doubted that Mr Trump could have much success in quickly striking deals.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics said in a 2016 analysis that negotiations for a single trade deal can take more than a year, with implementation taking multiple years.

That did not stop the White House from issuing bold predictions.

Within days of the April 2 announcement of tariffs on countries across the globe, White House officials said about 70 countries were calling to strike deals. Mr Trump’s trade adviser predicted 90 agreements in 90 days.

As the deals proved tougher to negotiate than advertised, Mr Trump lamented the pressure he was under. “Everyone says, ‘When, when, when are you going to sign deals?’” he said in May.

At one point, he said: “We don’t have to sign deals.”

The agreements Mr Trump has announced in recent days contain mostly top-line figures. They are not the detailed, complex documents that the US has historically negotiated, which can number in the hundreds of pages.

And the new deal with the EU could still run into trouble. The Trump administration faces nearly a dozen lawsuits seeking to have its tariffs declared illegal on the grounds that Mr Trump does not have the authority to impose them without the consent of Congress.

Should those suits succeed, Mr Trump would be back to square one.

Mr Andrew Hale, a trade policy analyst for the conservative Heritage Foundation, cautioned against reading too much into the deal with the European Union until the text is released, and the lawsuits are resolved.

“These are not comprehensive free trade agreements,” he said. “Let’s make that very clear. And much of this may evaporate.” NYTIMES