Economic crisis in Turkey spells disaster for book industry

ISTANBUL • Turkish doctorate student Gulfer Ulas saw the first edition of her favourite Thomas Mann collection published for 33 liras (S$3.60). She found the second print of the same two-volume set selling months later at her Istanbul book shop for 70 liras.

The jump exemplifies the debilitating unpredictability of Turkey's raging economic crisis on almost all facets of daily life - from shopping to education and culture.

Publishers fear it could also kill off an industry that offers a rare voice of diversity in a country where most media obey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's socially conservative government.

"I am a PhD student in international relations, so I have to read a lot. I spend almost 1,000 liras a month on books on my reading list even though I also download from the Internet," said Ms Ulas. "Book prices are skyrocketing."

The Turkish book industry, almost entirely dependent on paper imports, pinpoints one of the flaws in the economic experiment that President Erdogan has unleashed on his nation of 84 million people in the past few months. He has ripped up the economic rule book by orchestrating sharp interest rate cuts to bring down chronically rising consumer prices.

Economists struggle to remember the last time a big country has done something similar because cheap lending is widely presumed to cause inflation, not cure it.

Turks' fears about further erosion of their purchasing power prompted a surge in gold and US dollar purchases that erased nearly half the lira's value in a matter of weeks.

The accelerating losses forced Mr Erdogan last week to announce new currency support measures, backed by reportedly heavy exchange rate interventions, that have managed to erase a good chunk of the slide.

Few economists see this as a long-term solution. The lira now routinely gains or loses 5 per cent of its value a day.

Kirmizi Kedi publishing house owner Haluk Hepkon said he fears all this uncertainty "will compel people to prioritise buying essentials and put aside buying books".

He added: "You publish a book, and let's say it becomes a hit and costs 30 liras. And you go to a second edition in a week and the price climbs to 35 liras. Then for the third or fourth printing, only God knows how much it will cost."

Turkey's last official yearly inflation reading in early December stood at 21 per cent, a figure that opposition parties say is being underreported by the state.

The next report on Monday is almost certain to show a big bump because the lira's implosion has inflated the price of imported energy and raw materials such as those needed to make paper.

Applied economics professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University has calculated Turkey's current annual inflation rate at more than 80 per cent.

Turkish Publishers Association president Kenan Kocaturk said that global supply chain disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have contributed to his industry's problems by raising the price of unbleached pulp.

Turkey imports the raw material as its own paper mills have been privatised and then largely shut down.

"Turkey is paying the price for not seeing paper as a strategic asset," said Mr Kocaturk.

Publishers are already trying to minimise risks by planning to put fewer books in print in the coming year. The Heretik publishing house said it will not print some books "owing to the rise in the exchange rate and the extraordinary increase in paper costs".

Aras publishing house editor Rober Koptas said he was worried as printers represented a voice of ideological "resistance" in Turkey. "Almost the entire press speaks in the same voice and the universities are being silenced," he said.

Mr Hepkon of Kirmizi Kedi Publishing House said: "Culture is just as important as food, and maybe more so given that there is a need for educated people to address economic woes."

Mr Ibrahim Ozcay said the crisis is already keeping him and other avid readers from buying their favourite books for friends.

"They say this is due to the lack of paper on the market, which does not surprise me. Everything in Turkey is imported now," he said.

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE