Eisenkot’s strange bedfellow options to lead Israel

JERUSALEM – Israel’s former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has a matter of weeks to form a government, despite not having won a clear majority in the new Parliament.

Eisenkot has a number of options, although none look ideal for him, to reach the magic number of 61 in the 120-member Parliament.

President Isaac Herzog on Nov 8 gave Eisenkot the mandate to try to form a government, setting the clock at 28 days for him to come up with the 61 votes, although Herzog could give him a 14-day extension.

Minority government backed by Arab Israelis

Eisenkot has called for a “national emergency” government that would quickly oust Netanyahu, calling him a threat to democracy.

Eisenkot has suggested it be a minority government at first – with other parties not joining immediately but still voting to install him.

One option would be to rely on Arab Israelis, whose voter turnout surged in the Oct 27 election on anger over racism and marginalisation by Netanyahu’s far-right government.

Arab-majority parties won a record 19 seats, easily enough to give a majority to Eisenkot, whose core opposition bloc won 48 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats.

But any minority government would be fragile and Arab Israelis, who are descendants of Palestinians who stayed after Israel’s 1948 creation, could bring down Eisenkot over likely policy disagreements, including over Israel’s intense military pressure in Gaza.

Netanyahu has relentlessly attacked the prospect of an opposition government backed by Arab Israelis as a threat to Israel’s Jewish character and has accused them of electoral fraud, allegations that the lawmakers deny.

One option would be for Eisenkot to rely primarily on Raam, seen as the more moderate of the two Arab-majority parties and which has eight votes, if the leftist Joint List, with 11 votes, at least abstains from no-confidence motions against him.

But Avigdor Liberman, a right-wing opposition leader, has vowed that his party’s seven lawmakers will not join any government that relies on Arab Israelis, questioning their ideology and warning of the political cost.

Alliance with ultra-Orthodox

Few campaign promises were as explicit for the opposition as ending an exemption from Israel’s mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews who, under a longstanding arrangement backed by Netanyahu, are allowed to let their children study the Torah instead of joining the army.

The exemption has fuelled major resentment among other Israelis at a time when reservists are carrying out multiple tours of duty to fight in the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

But Liberman, who had gone so far as to call the ultra-Orthodox “anti-Jewish”, has opened the door to allying with the community as a way to oust Netanyahu while avoiding partnering with Arab Israelis.

The two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, have backed Netanyahu but could use their 13 combined seats to push Eisenkot over the top if they were promised a law to enshrine the exemption.

Yair Golan, the most left-leaning of the opposition bloc leaders and a supporter of working with Arab Israelis, quipped that Liberman should just form a government with Netanyahu if he does not want to draft the ultra-Orthodox or overturn the veteran Prime Minister’s sweeping, controversial judicial reforms.

National unity government

Eisenkot and Netanyahu have both offered a national-unity government – but with each one insisting he would be in charge.

Eisenkot has publicly said that Netanyahu is dangerous and unfit to lead Israel, pointing to his failure to prevent the Oct 7, 2023, Hamas attack, his deep divisiveness and corruption charges that could land Netanyahu in prison if he were to lose power.

Netanyahu has also shown no interest in serving under Eisenkot and he would lose his immunity if he does not remain premier.

But if Eisenkot cannot find another option, a national unity government could be an option to avoid new elections in which some observers predict the opposition would fare worse due to fading enthusiasm.

Herzog has signalled he would welcome a unity government to ease the country’s polarisation. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 due to repeated deadlocks until Netanyahu formed a government with the far-right.

Netanyahu in 2020 formed a national unity government with another centrist former military chief, Benny Gantz, but the arrangement quickly collapsed, the country headed to new elections and Gantz today is a marginal political figure. AFP