Disparities in vaccine access raise alarm amid new strains

LONDON • Global gaps in access to Covid-19 vaccines are raising concerns that the continued spread of the disease will breed more dangerous versions of the pathogen, weakening medical weapons and further crippling economies.

In a race to catch up with emerging coronavirus variants, wealthy countries are already benefiting from potent vaccines. While the United States, Britain and European Union have given their citizens about 24 million doses so far - over half of the shots given globally - vast numbers of countries have yet to begin their campaigns.

Disparities in immunity pose a threat to both have and have-not states. Giving the coronavirus an opportunity to advance and generate new mutants would have significant economic and public health impact, adding to the pain as the death toll surpasses two million.

"We cannot leave parts of the world without access to vaccines because it's just going to come back to us," said Dr Charlie Weller, head of vaccines at health research group Wellcome. "That puts everyone around the world at risk."

Countries are relying on effective immunisations to save lives and revive businesses. The World Bank's projection for 4 per cent growth this year depends on widespread deployment of vaccines.

Surging Covid-19 cases and a delay in vaccine delivery, however, could limit expansion to just 1.6 per cent. High-income countries have secured 85 per cent of Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine and all of Moderna's, according to London-based research firm Airfinity.

Much of the world will be counting on British drugmaker AstraZeneca, whose vaccine is cheaper and easier to distribute, along with other manufacturers such as China's Sinovac Biotech.

Of 42 countries rolling out coronavirus vaccines as of Jan 8, 36 were high-income countries and the rest middle-income, according to World Health Organisation director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. A growing number of countries are pursuing their own supply deals, in addition to participating in a global collaboration known as Covax.

Urgency is rising as the pandemic enters a second year. New variants that surfaced in Britain, South Africa and Brazil appear to spread significantly faster than earlier versions. Just in the past month, a "new dimension of risk has opened up", said Dr Rajeev Venkayya, head of Takeda Pharmaceutical's vaccines business.

Reducing deaths and illnesses has been seen as the main driver of delivering vaccines rapidly, said Dr Venkayya, who worked in the George W. Bush administration to develop a US pandemic flu plan and directed vaccine delivery for the Gates Foundation.

"We now understand it's also very, very important to control transmission, not just to protect those most vulnerable populations, but also to reduce the evolutionary risk associated with this virus," he said.

Drugmakers say they could tweak their shots to counter new variants within weeks if needed. The likelihood that such adaptations will be necessary has increased, Dr Venkayya said.

Coronavirus shots have been tested for their ability to prevent symptoms, not transmission. Still, their performance in clinical trials gives an indication of how effective they might be against spread.

The roll-out of shots from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna that had efficacy levels of about 95 per cent has raised questions about whether everyone will have access to such high levels of protection.

"The gap isn't just about access to vaccines," said Dr Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It's also about access to effective vaccines."

Vaccine advocates have urged rich countries to share while pushing companies to scale up manufacturing capacity. Dr Venkayya said: "Success is defined as getting vaccines to people everywhere and we're not yet successful in that endeavour."

BLOOMBERG