China’s defence spending will grow by 7.2 per cent in 2023 to 1.55 trillion yuan (S$302 billion), a shade higher than the 7.1 per cent hike in 2022.
It is in keeping with the incremental single-digit increases in the country’s military budget over the past eight years, which analysts believe will continue, barring major crises.
In a work report released at the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, Premier Li Keqiang said the armed forces should work to “carry out military operations, boost combat preparedness and enhance military capabilities so as to accomplish the tasks entrusted to them by the party and people”.
This is with an eye to achieving the goals for the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2027, the report stated. Mr Li read a shortened version at the event.
The headline figure is announced each year at the annual legislative meetings known as the Two Sessions, or lianghui. It is closely watched as a barometer of how Beijing will expand its military capabilities.
Mr Wang Chao, spokesman for this year’s NPC session, said on Saturday that the rise in defence spending is meant not just to deal with complex security challenges, but also to fulfil the responsibilities of a major country.
Mr Wang, who is president of the Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, added that China’s defence spending as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) has remained stable over the years, and remains lower than the global average.
The country’s defence budget was about a third of the United States’ in 2022.
“China’s military modernisation is not a threat to any country but a positive force for maintaining regional stability and global peace,” Mr Wang said in response to a question at a press conference.
He was speaking a day ahead of the opening of the NPC’s annual session in Beijing, held concurrently with the annual meeting of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top political advisory body.
According to The Military Balance 2023 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China’s military expenditure as a proportion of overall government spending had declined in the early 2000s.
But since Mr Xi Jinping became president in 2013, the fall has been arrested, suggesting an increased focus on ensuring the PLA receives the resources it needs, said the report published in February.
In recent years, the PLA has continued to expand its fleet of warships, field more J-20 stealth fighter jets and grow its conventional and nuclear missile forces.
China’s longer-term goal is to “basically complete” national defence and military modernisation by 2035, and transform the PLA into a “world-class military” by the middle of the century, according to Mr Xi’s 19th party congress speech in 2017.
Dr Li Nan, a visiting senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute who specialises in Chinese security and military policies, said China’s modest GDP target of around 5 per cent for 2023 – also announced on Sunday – could have constrained defence spending.
“The incremental increase is likely decided by slower economic growth and the need to prioritise economic development,” he added.
While 2023’s increase in defence spending is a small increment compared with last year’s, it will be the most since a 7.5 per cent jump in 2019. China’s last double-digit defence spending increase was in 2015.
Dr Li believes the current level of single-digit growth is more sustainable and would continue, barring a major build-up in tensions or crisis.
Assistant Professor Amrita Jash from the Manipal Academy of Higher Education in India, who researches on the PLA, said the incremental, single-digit increases will continue as long as the economic growth remains slow-paced.
“The fact remains that Beijing’s commitment to military development remains unwavering. Despite its slow-paced growth in the past few years, China did not compromise its defence expenditure,” she said.
