GENEVA • This year is on course to be one of the three warmest recorded and could even top the record set in 2016, the United Nations has said.
The past six years, 2015 to 2020, are therefore set to make up all six of the hottest years since modern records began in 1850, the UN's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in its provisional 2020 State of the Global Climate report.
"2020 has, unfortunately, been yet another extraordinary year for our climate," said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas.
"The average global temperature in 2020 is set to be about 1.2 deg C above the pre-industrial level," said Professor Taalas.
"There is at least a one in five chance of it temporarily exceeding 1.5 deg C by 2024."
The WMO said 2020 seemed on course to be the second-hottest year - but the difference between the top three is small and the picture could change once this year's data sets are complete.
The years from 2015 to 2020 are therefore individually "likely to be the six warmest on record", the report said.
Prof Taalas said this year saw "new extreme temperatures on land, sea and especially in the Arctic".
"Wildfires consumed vast areas in Australia, Siberia, the US West Coast and South America.
"Flooding in parts of Africa and South-east Asia led to massive population displacement and undermined food security for millions."
Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere - the main driver of climate change - hit record highs last year and continued climbing this year despite measures to halt the coronavirus pandemic.
Yet the world is planning to produce more than double the amount of coal, oil and gas in 2030 than would be consistent with curbing global warming, the UN and research groups said separately on Wednesday.
Some of the largest fossil fuel producers in the world, including Australia, China, Canada and the United States, are among those pursuing major expansions in fossil fuel supply.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations have committed to a long-term goal of limiting average temperature rise to below 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it even further to 1.5 deg C.
The 1.5 deg C target requires fossil fuel production to decrease by around 6 per cent per year between 2020 and 2030.
Instead, countries are planning an average annual increase of 2 per cent, which by 2030 would result in more than double the production consistent with the 1.5 deg C limit, the report said.
Between 2020 and 2030, global coal, oil, and gas production would have to fall annually by 11 per cent, 4 per cent, and 3 per cent respectively to be consistent with a 1.5 deg C pathway.
"This gap is large, with countries aiming to produce 120 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 deg C," the report said.
The report was produced by the UN Environment Programme, as well as experts from the Stockholm Environment Institute, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the Overseas Development Institute, think-tank E3G and universities.
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, REUTERS
