Well, what do you do when you see a horse who showed $596 for a win just five days ago being hammered to $14 favouritism?
Furthermore, the horse ticked all the "right" boxes - the right race, jockey and distance - and his odds nosedived from $50 to $28 and finally to $14 for a win. Oh yes, also not forgetting the horse was down from Class 3 to Class 4.
Right again. Racegoers simply jumped on the Reddot Rising bandwagon last night in the $50,000 Selangor Turf Club Trophy over the Polytrack 1,700m for Class 4 horses in Race 2.
At his last two starts - in Class 3 and Kranji Stakes C - the Saimee Jumaat-trained six-year-old Australian-bred raced over unsuitable sprint distances of 1,100m and 1,200m and was friendless in the betting at three-figure odds.
But, although he could only finish 10th over 1,200m last Sunday, it must be noted that he was just 21/2 lengths behind one of the emerging Kranji stars, Nimble, who made it four wins in a row.
That was good enough to lure me to make him my top choice, bearing in mind he was going over the more suitable 1,700m trip last night.
Friday's South Africa results
1st 2 Viking Moon ($6-$5.10)
2nd 1 Hooves Of Troy ($8)
3rd 6 Fairyland (No 3rd dividend)
4th 3 Wild Move
Forecast $3 Tierce $21 Trio $9 Quartet $28
1st 6 Thokzine ($31-$11)
2nd 8 Cirencester Rose ($27)
3rd 4 Pashtoosh ($5.10)
4th 1 Beholden
Forecast $383 Place Forecast (6-8) $71, (4-6) $7, (4-8) $40 Tierce No winner ($3,314 carried forward) Trio $309 Quartet No winner ($144 carried forward)
1st 7 Jadeed ($35-$10)
2nd 4 Tommy The Builder ($12)
3rd 2 Captain Carlos ($6)
4th 3 Zabivaka
Forecast $48 Place Forecast (4-7) $13, (2-7) $6, (2-4) $11 Tierce $345 Trio $38
Quartet No winner ($748 carried forward)
Scratching: 8 All Night Long
1st 9 Ruby Two Shoes ($13-$6)
2nd 6 Brigadoon Ely ($11)
3rd 2 Chief Black Horse ($9)
4th 5 Great Crusade
Forecast $19 Place Forecast (6-9) $7, (2-9) $7, (2-6) $13 Tierce $151
Trio $44 Quartet $533
Scratching: 3 Engadine
1st 15 Inga ($36-$11)
2nd 7 Viva Le Bleu $71)
3rd 10 Street Gaze ($10)
4th 12 Just Call Me Angel
Place Forecast (7-15) $134, (10-15) $16, (7-10) $104
Tierce No winner ($2,428 carried forward)
Trio No winner ($2,578 carried forward)
Quartet No winner ($636 carried forward)
Scratchings: 17 Countless Awards 18 Touch Of Green
The booking of Vlad Duric also played into the equation. The two-time Singapore champion was aboard Reddot Rising in two of his three earlier wins and the horse had gone through eight losing runs since Duric last won on him on July 20 last year. So he must be something good with Duric recalled.
The Australian rode a gem of a race last night. He slotted Reddot Rising into a nice midfield position after jumping from the second-widest barrier, tacking five lengths behind the leader Bangkok Boy.
Sensing Bangkok Boy had stolen a big lead at the mid-stage, Duric shook his mount up to stay in contention. Bangkok Boy straightened up about five lengths clear.
Coming home wide, Reddot Rising closed in quickly like a good horse and collared the leader 200m out for a 21/4-length victory over outsider Cash Is King.
Saimee reckoned the drop in class was vital in Reddot Rising's fourth success from 23 starts.
"He has been racing well in higher grades and this race came up and I thought that it was an ideal race for him. It was a suitable race for him and that was where he ended up," said the former multiple-champion jockey.
Pre-race, Duric knew he had a live chance and would ride the horse quietly over the longer trip before making the dash home.
"I got into a nice pace and rhythm with my horse and then, probably at about the 1,200m mark, they just started to gallop a bit strong for him," he said.
"He just wanted to put his head down and relax, so I should let them get away from me a little bit, just to keep my bloke comfortable, knowing he would finish really strongly.
"So, yeah, I rode him a length or two outside his comfort zone, to be honest. So it was a good effort to keep galloping away from them."
The Duric-Saimee combination snared a running double with odds-on favourite Stardice in another ideal race - the Maiden-2 event over 1,200m.
Newcomer Flying Yellow and Golden Win disputed the lead, with Stardice tracking behind. Although the front duo straightened up about five lengths clear, Duric managed to steer Stardice up to win by a length to pay $8 for a win.