Go by the laws of incremental improvement and England will be World Cup winners in 2022. They were semi-finalists in 2018 and Euro 2020 runners-up. The next step is to go one step further. Sadly for them, football is not that simple: Italy went from failing to qualify for the last World Cup to conquering Europe on a record unbeaten run.
But if England have first had revolution under Gareth Southgate, now they require the evolution to render them winners. Now they can win knockout games and their presence in the last week no longer looks an aberration.