Sunday's Hong Kong (Sha Tin) form analysis

Elusive state one to beat

RACE 1 (1,200M)

5 Charizard ran well on debut, closing into fourth behind Complacency. This is no tougher.

1 Super Star won nicely in his first start and should be hard to beat in this spot.

14 Super Euro Star will probably head back to Class 5 after this run if he misses the placings. But, if he gets an easy lead in front, he could stick on for some minor money.

12 Happy Warrior is improving and can't be ruled out.

RACE 2 (1,650M)

2 Chater Thunder is a two-time course-and-distance winner who is drawn to enjoy the right run in transit.

1 Travel First has shown an affinity for this course and distance. Now back down in grade and on this surface, he deserves plenty of respect.

11 Spicy Kaka can finish in the placings with no weight on his back.

9 Quick Return will break through one of these days. Can be included.

RACE 3 (1,650M)

3 Elusive State has an awkward draw but looks capable of going up in grade on this surface based on his last win. He'll be hard to beat.

12 Imperial Concorde rarely runs a bad race over this course and distance. He can't be dismissed.

5 Turf Sprint steps up to the extended mile for the first time. It might not prove a bad move.

9 Shamport has a style that should be suited on the dirt. He's not without claims.

RACE 4 (1,000M)

2 Styling City showed last time out the best way for him to be ridden is to simply allow him to bowl along near the speed. He's likely to get that opportunity here.

4 Money Boy is inconsistent but is always capable of running a big race in these sorts of contests if things fall his way.

3 E-Super returns to the Sha Tin 1,000m for the first time in 18 months. He actually ran some nice races at the course and distance early in his career.

9 Triumphant Jewel took the first race of the season, before going back-to-back in his next start. He's not without a hope.

RACE 5 (1,800M)

6 Harmony Victory impressed at his first Hong Kong run, with a fair second-up behind Victory Boys. The former Brazilian should appreciate the extra 200m for his first win, despite the bad gate.

1 Insayshable won well at Happy Valley first-up, then was simply outrun by Glorious Forever. There's nothing of that quality.

3 Victory Boys needs to go to another level but, on the evidence of his last win, there's no reason why that's not possible.

5 Stimulation is still finding his feet but he can't be overlooked.

RACE 6 (1,600M)

1 Beauty Generation has been imperious in two handicap wins under top-weight this season, cementing himself as the top horse in Hong Kong. Back to set-weight conditions, the only potential fly in the ointment looks the possible added speed of The Golden Age. Still, that's a small concern and he really should be winning this.

5 Singapore Sling closed off nicely first-up. He does meet Beauty Generation 11 pounds (5kg) worse at the weights, but he can close off nicely again into the placings.

6 Southern Legend was plain in two runs to start his season, before missing an intended start in the Sha Tin Trophy due to a minor setback. Trainer Caspar Fownes always said that his plan was to have him right for this race and so an improved effort should be expected.

8 The Golden Age returns from injury. He's a pace presence and can stick around for a minor placing.

RACE 7 (2,000M)

3 Werther defends his title in this race, having not won since his narrow victory over Time Warp last year. This time, though, the roles are reversed - he doesn't have a five-pound penalty to carry while Time Warp does have the top impost this time around.

1 Pakistan Star's return to 2,000m should prove a positive. Expect a good run to top him off for the Hong Kong Cup.

9 Glorious Forever faces his stiffest test but, after a good run in the Ladies' Purse, he can prove that he belongs amongst the big boys.

2 Time Warp has the penalty but can still get into the finish.

RACE 8 (1,200M)

7 Hot King Prawn showed last start that he is the complete package now, in that he can run along at a high-cruising speed but can also maintain that gallop right to the line. That's a lethal combination.

4 Beat The Clock is consistent in these races and getting five pounds off Ivictory, Mr Stunning and D B Pin gives him his chance to win.

1 Ivictory can atone for his last-start failure if he doesn't attempt to tackle Hot King Prawn early.

2 Mr Stunning will be somewhere around the mark.

RACE 9 (1,200M)

3 Limitless has trialled well since his last run. The booking of Gerald Mosse, a kind and patient rider, may prove an inspired decision.

12 Raging Storm gets Joao Moreira aboard again, with the Magic Man having partnered the gelding to three wins from five rides.

6 Summer Passage ran a better race fresh and could improve once more heading into this.

1 California Fortune should run a bold race on the speed.

RACE 10 (1,400M)

11 Noble Steed hasn't lived up to the early expectations for him, but there's no doubting the talent still exists. He just needs an ounce of luck and he'll be hard to beat.

1 Lockheed is better than his current rating. It's just a matter of whether he brings it on race day.

5 Nicconi Express debuts, having won two races impressively in Australia as Weona Nicconi. Don't be surprised if he comes to hand quickly.

13 Grade One can't be dismissed with no weight on his back.

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A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on November 17, 2018, with the headline Elusive state one to beat. Subscribe