NEW YORK • A year from now, the world will begin to gather in Japan to celebrate the opening of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, which were supposed to begin this week.

Or maybe it will not.

Four months after the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and officials in Japan postponed the Games amid soaring coronavirus infection rates and lockdowns across the world, uncertainty prevails.

The unpredictable nature of the virus is making it impossible for officials to say definitively that the Games will happen or, if they do, what they might look like.

Maybe there will not be any spectators. Maybe only people living in Japan will be able to attend. Or maybe only those from countries where the virus is under control.

Will there be an Olympic Village, the traditional home for the roughly 10,000 competitors?

Will athletes from the United States, which is the world's most affected country and where the pandemic shows no signs of abating, be allowed to attend?

In a news conference last week, Thomas Bach, the president of the IOC, said that planning for the Games now involves multiple options. All of them, he said, prioritise the health of the athletes.

He has insisted a further postponement is not an option; if the Games cannot be held next summer, they will not be held at all.

As sports leagues everywhere struggle to return to some semblance of normalcy while balancing virus outbreaks and safety concerns, the challenges of planning a global event that is still a year away have only grown - or merely been exacerbated as hot spots for infections continue to shift.

"People right now are focused on the health of the citizens of their countries," said Harvey Schiller, the former chief executive of the US Olympic and Paralympic Committee (USOPC).

No one doubts the resolve of the IOC and Japanese organisers, who desperately want to hold the Games, given the resources they have already committed and the money at stake.

Japan has already spent US$12 billion (S$16.68 billion) to prepare for the Games. The IOC stands to lose billions in revenue from media rights, tickets and sponsorship if the event does not happen.

Despite a recent spike in coronavirus cases and a ban on travel from 129 countries, the official line in Japan remains that the postponed Tokyo Games will open on July 23, 2021. But last week, Tokyo raised its pandemic alert level to red, its highest classification, in response to a recent spike in cases.

Polls suggest the public is also wary of the Olympics. In a survey last month by the Asahi Shimbun paper, 59 per cent of those polled said they wanted the Games to be postponed again or cancelled.

The issues extend far beyond Japan's borders. Traditionally the financial engine of an Olympics, the US currently poses perhaps the biggest threat to the Games.

The coronavirus has also forced broadcaster NBC, which has committed about US$8 billion for the American media rights to the Games through 2032 and is the IOC's leading source of revenue, to consider reducing its contingent of roughly 2,000 workers and hundreds of guests.

"It's impossible to predict what the circumstances will be a year from now," said Molly Solomon, the executive producer of its Olympics production.

During a recent conference call with athletes, though, leaders of the USOPC had few concrete answers. No one could say if athletes would still have to share rooms in the Olympic Village, if the common dining hall would be a potentially germ-spreading buffet, or if the American team - traditionally the biggest contingent at any Games - might have to be housed separately from other nations.

"Athletes are yearning for more concrete communication directly from the IOC and other organisations," said Han Xiao, chair of the USOPC's Athletes' Advisory Council.

The US team of over 500 athletes might have to be smaller, although so far, the IOC has maintained it does not plan to reduce the number of events or participants.

"There is a lot of speculation and proposals, but not one specific plan that anyone is able to focus on," said Christian Taylor, a two-time triple jump gold medallist.

Han added that thinking about travel restrictions was keeping athletes awake at night. Many need to compete to qualify for the Games and also to hone their skills for an event that, for many, is the zenith of their athletic lives.

But athletes also need assurances that they will be allowed to take part and the coronavirus has changed that equation. "Our athletes are used to, 'You can't infringe upon my right to compete'," Han said. "But this is going to be a real challenge to try to figure out where that line is."

NYTIMES