SINGAPORE - The United States and China should negotiate "guard rails" and create a direct and open communication channel so its leaders can contact each other quickly over Taiwan to avert conflict, said Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong on Wednesday (Jan 19).

Speaking virtually at the third Hong Kong Forum on US-China Relations, he noted that China has reiterated on countless occasions that it will take military action if Taiwan crosses Beijing's red lines and makes a move towards independence.

But a big unknown is where the tipping point lies, Mr Goh said.

To avoid miscalculation leading to military conflict, the US and China should create the 21st-century equivalent of the "red telephone", he added.

Mr Goh was referring to the secure system that US and Soviet Union leaders used to communicate after the two powers came close to a nuclear war in 1962 over the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba.

"My biggest concern is whether Taiwan becomes a casus belli. I do not think the mainland wants to invade Taiwan and reunify it through force. However, if it sees no prospect for peaceful reunification, it may believe it has no choice," he said, referring to how Taiwan could become the issue that provokes war between the US and China.

"The more international space Taiwan gains, which Beijing sees as the result of tacit encouragement from the US, the more the mainland will ratchet up pressure on Taiwan."

Mr Goh said there was mutual strategic distrust between the US and China, stemming from the difference in values, ideologies, worldviews, political systems and perspectives on global governance.

The US, having assessed that China is its main strategic competitor and a threat to American national security and values, has bolstered its military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific and has also drawn attention to alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, he noted.

"From Washington's perspective, China is not following the established rules of the global order despite being a chief beneficiary. Instead, China is seeking to rewrite these rules in its favour," Mr Goh added.

Meanwhile, Beijing sees this, at best, as Washington's containment strategy to prevent China's rise, and at worst, as a long-term strategy to weaken China and break it up, he said.

Hence, China is building up multiple defensive and offensive capabilities that it reasons are needed to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, he added.

Mr Goh said that if the two superpowers cannot overcome their mutual distrust, the world will be "condemned" to deal with the geopolitical repercussions of the contentious US-China relationship "for eternity".

He called on concerned countries, leaders, institutions, media, business, think-tanks and people who want to avert a catastrophic clash between the US and China to urge the two superpowers to play a "positive-sum game" and not a "zero-sum game", or worse, a "negative-sum game".

Describing this as the Voice of Moderation, he said: "It advocates strategic rationality, peace, growth and prosperity within an interdependent, open, inclusive, rules-based multilateral order."

Mr Goh said Asean, as a prime example of how countries with very different geographies, histories, languages and political systems can pursue a common vision of a peaceful and prosperous South-east Asia, can be a substantive Voice of Moderation.

"We have consistently encouraged both the US and China to remain productively engaged in the region across different sectors. Both countries are dialogue partners of Asean and we hope to continue engaging both China and the US at Asean meetings at the highest level."

He said the forum, organised by the China-United States Exchange Foundation and the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, is also a meaningful Voice of Moderation.

At their virtual summit in November, US President Joe Biden had called for "common-sense guard rails", while Chinese President Xi Jinping had compared the two countries to two giant ships that must forge ahead together without colliding.

Citing this, Mr Goh said: "Actions on the ground should reflect the two leaders' words. The US and China must see that it is in their own interests to maintain a stable and peaceful international environment.

"Both countries need to implement 'trust but verify' agreements as they try to resolve outstanding bilateral issues while attaining their geopolitical ambitions."

Beyond merely avoiding conflict, the relationship between both countries should be underpinned by healthy competition and driven by cooperation where possible, added Mr Goh.

He noted that both President Xi and President Biden had spoken of fair competition, adding that this means there is common ground to work together.

Pointing to the many pressing global issues that require US-China cooperation, such as free trade, climate change and global pandemic preparedness, Mr Goh said: "The US and China will have to address what exactly healthy competition will look like, in accordance with international law and the existing international rules-based order."

Expressing hope that both major powers would have made good headway in managing their mutual strategic distrust by the next forum, he added: "Doing so will require wisdom and statecraft of the highest order. I believe both Presidents Biden and Xi possess these qualities. I pray that they will be able to build up strategic trust between their countries and peoples."