Next Covid-19 wave likely to be one of reinfections, says Ong Ye Kung

With around seven in 10 people here having been infected with Covid-19, the next big wave will likely be one of reinfections.

While Singapore is more resilient now, given that its current wave has just subsided, the Republic needs to be prepared for a year-end wave that may be caused by a variant of concern that dodges immunity from past infection, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung yesterday morning.

Mr Ong noted at a press conference by the multi-ministry task force on Covid-19 that reinfection cases have climbed to about 5.5 per cent of infections here this month, compared with about 3 per cent of cases the last time he updated Parliament.

"We have far fewer Covid-19-naive individuals, which means that our next wave must comprise many reinfections," Mr Ong said, noting that immunity gained from infection will also wane over time.

This is why the Ministry of Health is closely monitoring reinfection numbers, as this will give the authorities an idea of when the next wave can happen, he added.

Data has shown that the probability of reinfection eight months later is still very low - at around 5 per cent - compared with the risk faced by someone who has not been infected by Covid-19 before, which is a good sign, he said.

Mr Ong noted that countries in the Northern Hemisphere, such as the United States and those in Europe, are all preparing for a winter wave and possibly a new variant of concern. Singapore should likewise prepare itself, he said. "It may even be a new variant of concern with significant immunity escape."

A key part of these preparations is managing healthcare capacity, he said.

The task force has found ways to ease the heavy workload in hospitals by setting up Covid-19 treatment facilities, to alleviate the pressure on hospitals so that they can admit Covid-19 patients who are seriously ill for urgent medical care.

A new category of facilities called transitional care facilities (TCFs) will also help.

A transitional care facility is one that is dual-use, which means that during a surge in Covid-19 hospitalisations, it can become treatment facility for lower-risk Covid-19 patients.

It can also act as a step-down care facility for non-Covid-19 patients, including those who might be staying in the hospital waiting for nursing homes.

Such a facility with 164 beds has already been set up at Sengkang Community Hospital.

"The TCF has worked very well because it is next to the Sengkang General Hospital, and these two facilities work hand in hand... reducing the heavy workload in Sengkang," Mr Ong said.

The authorities are also progressively converting Hall 10 of Changi Exhibition Hall from a Covid-19 treatment facility into a TCF.

"That means by the end of September, we will have a total of 364 beds for TCFs," the minister said.