Science Talk: Collaboration key for S-E Asia to unlock benefits of global goal to triple renewables

SINGAPORE – Positive changes are seen in the direction of a clean energy future.

Commitments are made and progress is taking place with an unprecedented 473 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power added globally in 2023, a 14 per cent increase and the largest annual growth ever. 

As the finishing line closes in, however, this achievement still leaves a tremendous gap.

As much as an average annual addition of 1,044GW is needed between today and 2030 to fulfil the global goal of tripling renewables from the 2023 capacity of 3,870GW to at least 11,000GW by the end of the decade.

This tripling of renewable energy capacity was set out in the outcome of the United Nations COP28 climate conference in Dubai in December 2023.

Structural barriers persist, and we need strong political will to overcome them.

Already, Asean members have collectively aspired to cover 35 per cent of their electricity needs with renewables by 2025. 

There is no doubt that tripling renewables is technically feasible and economically viable. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (Irena) 1.5 deg C scenario, Asean can even achieve a 47 per cent share of renewable power capacity by 2025.

But despite its considerable renewable energy potential, Asean members contributed about 105GW to the global renewables capacity of 3,865GW as at 2023.

To make sure the remaining six years see accelerated increase in Asean’s renewables capacity, the region needs to enhance the key enablers of a renewables-dominated system and overcome the existing barriers.

Irena identified regional power interconnection as an enabler of the region’s decarbonisation and energy transition. It is estimated that an integrated approach of grid expansion at the regional level can increase Asean’s total renewables capacity to 3,400GW by 2050. 

This is why the Asean Power Grid – which aims to connect neighbouring countries and facilitate cross-border renewable power trade – should be the focus of South-east Asian countries’ infrastructure expansion and modernisation. 

But ageing infrastructure and inefficient grid systems not suitable for high integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) are among the barriers to its development progress. Policymakers can implement regulatory incentives to attract both domestic and foreign players to participate in projects that are critical to or complement the Asean Power Grid.

The second existing barrier is related to the administrative aspects of policy frameworks. Red tape, for example, must be reduced by creating a centralised authority to oversee permitting. 

Moreover, South-east Asia’s renewable energy ambition requires a workforce with skills fit for a green energy future. This is the third barrier that needs to be addressed by the region.

With the move to leave fossil fuels, Asean is facing a mismatch between job seekers’ expectations, employment opportunities and skill requirements. 

Countries must therefore proactively coordinate support for educating, training and reskilling the workforce. Technical and vocational education and training programmes can be a solution, and governments can partner the private sector by having companies participate in such programmes.

Implementing these measures presents both opportunities and challenges. Countries have the opportunities to tap the economic benefits of increased renewable power, but face the challenge of mobilising finance. 

As a group, Asean will require an estimated investment of US$210 billion (S$277 billion) a year until 2050, including in renewable energy and electricity grids. In reality, only US$14 billion was invested in the region’s energy transition-related sectors in 2023.

Intensified international collaboration can scale up financing and better channel funds, particularly for capital-intensive projects. Countries can collaborate with multilateral development banks to identify economically viable projects, policy design and innovative financing instruments, among other things. 

Instruments such as auctions are becoming popular globally in speeding up renewables deployment, including in South-east Asia. Auctions seek not only to reduce electricity costs, but also to increase integration of VRE, leading to more renewable power capacity, which the region gravely needs given its expected power demand.

Along with fast-growing economies, Asean’s electricity demand might increase to around 6,000 terawatt (TW) hours by 2050, subject to electrification developments. This includes indirect electrification through renewables-based or green hydrogen, making the latter of growing importance to the region. 

Rapidly scaling up renewables beyond current commitments is therefore crucial for Asean, both for meeting direct electricity demand and for green hydrogen development. 

Yet we know that current national energy and climate plans and targets will deliver only half of the required growth to triple renewables to 11.2TW by 2030, falling short by 34 per cent.

For South-east Asia, the production and utilisation of green hydrogen can advance local manufacturing capacities, technological expertise and infrastructure development, which would in turn contribute to jobs creation in the region.

Reaping the socio-economic potential of the path to reach the tripling target should be countries’ priority.

Irena’s analysis estimates South-east Asia – with holistic policy framework and international support – is poised to gain 12 per cent of the estimated 40 million renewables jobs created globally by 2050. 

To discuss ways to unlock that potential, Irena and the Singapore Government organised a high-level forum under the theme, Energy Transitions: Towards Tripling Of Renewables By 2030, on Oct 22.

Held during the recent Singapore International Energy Week 2024, the forum brought together government leaders and industry stakeholders from around the world to discuss ways to enhance partnerships and move together urgently on the road to 2030.

As a growth driver of global energy demand over the next three decades, South-east Asia has its survival and sustainable development at stake.

Only by joining the global voice to leave fossil fuels behind and by partnering the international community can the region substantially boost its renewables uptake to meet its growing energy need and achieve its economic growth sustainably.