News analysis
Rise in cases was expected, so why delay changes?
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Many have been left disappointed after the multi-ministry task force (MTF) tackling Covid-19 announced on Thursday that the streamlining of safe management measures (SMM) has been postponed.
The streamlining was to have taken place in two phases, starting yesterday, according to initial plans unveiled last week.
The first round would have entailed allowing groups of up to five to visit homes at any one time, social gatherings of up to five people at workplaces, adjustments to vaccination differentiated measures for unvaccinated children aged 12 and below and the resumption of team sports.
More changes would have taken effect from March 4, affecting size limits for religious services, business events, media conferences, funerary memorial events, wedding receptions and mask-on classes. Zoning would also not have been needed.
All these changes have now been pushed back to a date to be announced later.
Citing the reasons for the delay, the Health Ministry said in a statement on Thursday: "Given the current surge in daily cases and the extensive work involved in going through the detailed rules across different settings, the MTF has reviewed the matter and has decided to consolidate and streamline the SMMs in one go instead."
But people are asking: Surely the ministers knew there would be extensive work involved when they announced the changes on Feb 16?
Similarly, the high number of infections had been predicted.
When the streamlining was announced, Singapore was "seeing up to about 20,000 daily cases", which the task force said was expected, given the high transmissibility of the Omicron variant.
On Thursday, when the delay was announced, there were 18,593 new cases.
Yet, on Feb 16, the task force felt that the time was right to streamline measures as the situation in the healthcare system remained stable.
Yes, there was a surge to over 26,000 cases on Tuesday, but the numbers have come down since.
The total case numbers may be even higher early next week as they typically drop at the weekend and climb on Tuesdays because of the reporting regime.
But those are not the important numbers, especially because many who are infected are not included in the daily count.
What matters is the number of people who become seriously ill as that may impact the healthcare system.
That number has remained fairly steady.
The task force said on Feb 16 that there were about 1,400 Covid-19 patients in hospital.
This has gone up slightly and stood at 1,615 on Thursday.
There were 44 patients needing intensive care, a far cry from the high numbers last year.
So, the situation in hospitals remains fairly stable.
Associate Professor Alex Cook, a health modelling expert at the National University of Singapore Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, said maintaining current measures "won't create a flat-topped wave, but the peak may not be as high and the impact to the health system may be marginally less".
Professor Ooi Eng Eong of Duke-NUS Medical School said that lumping together people who test positive but have no symptoms along with those who are seriously ill "creates unnecessary alarm in many people".
He suggested that Singapore follow the World Health Organisation's definition of Covid-19, which counts only those with "symptoms indicative of acute illness".
Prof Ooi and other experts The Straits Times spoke to were equally surprised by the delay in streamlining measures, though they said that the trend of people rushing to hospital emergency departments after testing positive could have contributed to the decision.
This rush to get tested at hospitals will also push up case numbers.
Professor Dale Fisher, a senior infectious diseases consultant at the National University Hospital, suggested that with the Omicron wave expected to peak soon, it might make sense to wait a little while so more measures could be eased at one go.
"It would certainly be easier to make broader and more positively impactful changes concurrently, and it is possible that we could see fewer steps to return Singapore life to normal," he said.
The total case numbers may be even higher early next week as they typically drop at the weekend and climb on Tuesdays because of the reporting regime.
But those are not the important numbers... What matters is the number of people who become seriously ill as that may impact the healthcare system.
That number has remained fairly steady.
But those are not the important numbers... What matters is the number of people who become seriously ill as that may impact the healthcare system.
That number has remained fairly steady.
