Keep an umbrella handy while celebrating the last day of the Chinese New Year festivities today, as the weekend and week ahead look set to be gloomy.

It would likely be occasionally windy today with passing showers expected in the afternoon, said the weatherman.

But more wind and rain are expected tomorrow and into the coming week, when Singapore is affected by a weather phenomenon known as the monsoon surge.

The National Environment Agency (NEA) said in a Facebook post on Thursday: "The surge will bring windy conditions with widespread rain, heavy at times, on some days in the coming week.

"The daily temperature during this period is expected to range between 22 and 29 deg C."

A monsoon surge refers to the strengthening of winds over the South China Sea, which is to the north-east of Singapore.

The winds blowing towards Singapore pick up moisture as they travel across the sea, resulting in the formation of rain clouds over the region, said Assistant Professor Winston Chow, from the National University of Singapore's geography department.

Rain-bringing monsoon surges are not typical for this period as February is usually the driest month in the year, said Prof Chow.

February usually coincides with the dry phase of the north-east monsoon season, which Singapore is currently experiencing.

The NEA had noted in an earlier forecast that the first fortnight of this month would likely be marked by drier weather and occasionally windy conditions - a change from the wet weather experienced in the second half of last month.

"Climatologically, February is the driest month of the year," the NEA said then.

But it is still too early to say if the expected deluge over the week would make this February the wettest one yet.