Europe's Black Death plague offers lessons for tackling outbreak: NMP

A plague that killed more than a third of Europe's population 600 years ago may offer insights into how Singapore should deal with the social and economic costs of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, said Nominated MP Walter Theseira.

These include the failure of a market system to value low-wage workers - many of whom are on the front line of the country's outbreak response - and whether economic and social institutions are resilient enough to deal with such shocks, he told the House yesterday.

In the 14th and 15th centuries, the plague known as the Black Death destroyed not only populations, but also the prevailing social and economic orders. Governments realised belatedly that inequality weakened society's ability to resist the plague, said Associate Professor Theseira, who teaches economics at the Singapore University of Social Sciences. Similarly, the Covid-19 disease is a threat to the current social order but it is also a chance to strengthen weaknesses in Singapore's economy, he said.

First, while Singapore has put much store on market forces and how wages may reflect productivity, these often fail to reflect true social value. For example, cleaners bear more risk and take on more work disinfecting premises during the outbreak, but get the same pay as they did before.

Second, short-sighted consideration of only efficiency overlooks other important factors like resilience. Business in Singapore's normally thriving private medical sector has slowed during the outbreak, yet at the same time, GPs and public hospitals are severely stretched.

And to keep costs low, appointments for subsidised healthcare are made as tightly as possible to extract the most out of manpower and equipment. But this also means in times of crisis, Singapore risks lacking spare capacity to deal with sudden demand, meaning existing resources need to work overtime.

The Government needs to step in, added Prof Theseira. He suggested raising wages for lower-paid workers by funding the hike from higher-paying jobs.

Today, a lot falls on the Government to enact strong policies during "major shocks" like Covid-19, as Singapore does not have many automatic risk-sharing measures in place, he said.

"This is both a strength and a weakness because resilience depends on the performance of the political leadership of the day. Events near to us show that this cannot be guaranteed," he added.