Global Affairs

Which is more dangerous - China on the rise or about to hit its peak?

As pundits debate the ups and downs of Sino-US rivalry, consider a different take on the Thucydides Trap and why the coming decade could be highly dangerous.

The air of inevitability remains a huge asset for China worldwide. PHOTO: REUTERS
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Who's up and who's down? For most of those working in the academic and policymaking communities, the answer is pretty obvious: The United States is locked into an irreversible decline, while China is enjoying a rapid rise.

Yet over the past few months, the English-speaking policy community has been seized by what appears as a counter-intuitive argument: the idea that China is rapidly approaching the peak of its power or may have peaked already.

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