We will never know for sure what exactly transpired between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping when they met just before the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics in early February. But some things can be inferred from the chronology of events and China's actions and inactions, says former diplomat Bilahari Kausikan in his commentary.

He suggests that Mr Putin may not have fully confided his plans to Mr Xi. After the invasion, small signs that there are in fact limits to Sino-Russian cooperation have emerged: China abstained in the UN Security Council rather than exercising its veto together with Russia. Two of the largest Chinese state banks have restricted financing for Russian commodities.

The various shifts of position do not suggest clear foreknowledge of Russia's plans by China, says Mr Kausikan. "Rather, they suggest that China too was caught off guard, at least by the scale and ferocity of the Russian offensive if not by the general Russian intention to bring Ukraine under its sway."

He concludes that the Sino-Russian partnership will nevertheless hold, and it is a "fantasy" to think that the West resetting relations with one or the other will wean Russia from China or China from Russia.

Painful sanctions

As draconian and painful as Western sanctions are, and despite having triggered a crash in the stock market and the value of the Russian rouble, they are unlikely to deter Russia from following through on its plans for Ukraine. But they will bite, says associate editor Vikram Khanna in this commentary.

The sanctions are the most severe ever inflicted upon Russia. They include sanctions against Russian banks, the freezing of assets of prominent individuals - all the way up to President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, bans on debt and equity investments spanning several sectors, and export controls on an array of high-technology products.

After some hesitation, Western countries have also proceeded to partially block Russia's access to the Swift payments system, which enables fast and secure payment transfers among more than 11,000 financial institutions and companies in over 200 countries and territories.

But the war will also impact the global economy, as oil and food prices spike. Russia and Ukraine together account for about one third of global wheat exports and 20 per cent of the trade in corn.

"We could see a re-run of the explosive food price inflation of 2007-2008 which led to food riots in some developing countries," says Mr Khanna.

"High oil and food prices will also add to global inflation, which could trigger even tighter monetary policies across the world, slowing economic recoveries in 2023 and even leading to recessions."

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