The Ukraine war's decisive season

The long-promised Ukrainian counter-offensive is finally under way and making progress. Meanwhile, Russia has shut its Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. Both events are important to the outcome of the war.

Ukraine's Kharkiv offensive has seemingly thrown the occupiers into disarray, liberating important towns and territories. PHOTO: AFP
New: Gift this subscriber-only story to your friends and family

The summer of war in Ukraine, while brutal for soldiers and civilians on the front lines, has been experienced from afar as a stalemate, depressing enough in its grinding sameness to slip out of American headlines for a time. Autumn and winter will be different, supplying answers to the two questions that will determine the war's duration.

First, how much territory can Ukraine liberate from Russian occupation? Second, how grim and desperate will the European winter be with normal Russian energy supplies cut off, and what political consequences will follow?

Already a subscriber? 

Read the full story and more at $9.90/month

Get exclusive reports and insights with more than 500 subscriber-only articles every month

Unlock these benefits

  • All subscriber-only content on ST app and

  • Easy access any time via ST app on 1 mobile device

  • E-paper with 2-week archive so you won't miss out on content that matters to you

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.