The coming food price shock: How war, weather and fuel are colliding
The cost of fertiliser is up 30 per cent, diesel margins have hit record highs, and El Nino hasn’t even peaked. Asia’s import-dependent economies are on the front line.
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An Indonesian padi farmer in Aneuk Galong, Aceh province, cutting crops damaged by drought on Aug 30. The outlook is grim as the El Nino weather phenomenon is set to intensify in the months ahead and persist into early 2027.
PHOTO: AFP
We have seen wars in Europe and the Middle East before. We have seen energy price shocks before. We have seen extreme weather events batter harvests before. What we rarely see is all of them arriving at once, each amplifying the others rather than playing out in isolation.
That is the situation facing global food markets in the second half of 2026: a war-driven fertiliser shortage, war-driven shortages of fuel and grain, and an intensifying El Nino, converging on a food system that had only just steadied after the shocks of 2022.