Russia's calculations must include talks

There is little doubt that Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign nation and United Nations member, is aggression plain and simple. To attack a neighbour for harbouring ambitions to join the European Union, and possibly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), is outlandish. Moreover, neither decision was imminent, and it was never clear if the latter was at all probable. The world has every right to be deeply concerned at the conflict and escalating tensions initiated by President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine and Moscow's decision to recognise two breakaway regions. Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity must be respected, and the invasion reversed. But thanks to the insecurities that haunt Russia and Mr Putin, Europe now has to confront its first land war in a generation.

The parties involved are the continent's largest and second-largest by land area. The casualty count has started to climb, and a stream of people fleeing the conflict are gathering at the Polish and other borders, trying to get to safety. Wider repercussions are already coming into view: Germany announced it will raise defence spending by at least a third, and it suspended the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have transported Russian gas to it. Critically for Russia's long-term considerations, Nato has been galvanised and given a new sense of purpose - Sweden and Finland will now be tempted to seek membership even more assiduously. Without question, there will also be calls for the European Union to accelerate plans to build its own separate defence force. Is this what Mr Putin wanted?